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Tests for equal forecast accuracy under heteroskedasticity
Harvey, David I.1; Leybourne, Stephen J.1; Zu, Yang2
2024-04-22
Source PublicationJournal of Applied Econometrics
ABS Journal Level3
ISSN0883-7252
Pages1-20
Other Abstract

Heteroskedasticity is a common feature in empirical time series analysis, and in this paper, we consider the effects of heteroskedasticity on statistical tests for equal forecast accuracy. In such a context, we propose two new Diebold–Mariano-type tests for equal accuracy that employ nonparametric estimation of the loss differential variance function. We demonstrate that these tests have the potential to achieve power improvements relative to the original Diebold–Mariano test in the presence of heteroskedasticity, for a quite general class of loss differential series. The size validity and potential power superiority of our new tests are studied theoretically and in Monte Carlo simulations. We apply our new tests to competing forecasts of changes in the dollar/sterling exchange rate and find the new tests provide greater evidence of differences in forecast accuracy than the original Diebold–Mariano test, illustrating the value of these new procedures for practitioners.

KeywordDiebold–mariano Test Forecast Accuracy Nonparametric Volatility Estimation
DOI10.1002/jae.3050
URLView the original
Indexed BySSCI
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaBusiness & Economics ; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences
WOS SubjectEconomics ; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods
WOS IDWOS:001206012100001
PublisherWILEY, 111 RIVER ST, HOBOKEN 07030-5774, NJ
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85191147968
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Document TypeJournal article
CollectionFaculty of Social Sciences
DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS
Corresponding AuthorHarvey, David I.
Affiliation1.School of Economics, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, United Kingdom
2.Department of Economics, University of Macau, Macao
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Harvey, David I.,Leybourne, Stephen J.,Zu, Yang. Tests for equal forecast accuracy under heteroskedasticity[J]. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2024, 1-20.
APA Harvey, David I.., Leybourne, Stephen J.., & Zu, Yang (2024). Tests for equal forecast accuracy under heteroskedasticity. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1-20.
MLA Harvey, David I.,et al."Tests for equal forecast accuracy under heteroskedasticity".Journal of Applied Econometrics (2024):1-20.
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