Residential College | false |
Status | 已發表Published |
Tests for equal forecast accuracy under heteroskedasticity | |
Harvey, David I.1; Leybourne, Stephen J.1; Zu, Yang2 | |
2024-04-22 | |
Source Publication | Journal of Applied Econometrics |
ABS Journal Level | 3 |
ISSN | 0883-7252 |
Pages | 1-20 |
Other Abstract | Heteroskedasticity is a common feature in empirical time series analysis, and in this paper, we consider the effects of heteroskedasticity on statistical tests for equal forecast accuracy. In such a context, we propose two new Diebold–Mariano-type tests for equal accuracy that employ nonparametric estimation of the loss differential variance function. We demonstrate that these tests have the potential to achieve power improvements relative to the original Diebold–Mariano test in the presence of heteroskedasticity, for a quite general class of loss differential series. The size validity and potential power superiority of our new tests are studied theoretically and in Monte Carlo simulations. We apply our new tests to competing forecasts of changes in the dollar/sterling exchange rate and find the new tests provide greater evidence of differences in forecast accuracy than the original Diebold–Mariano test, illustrating the value of these new procedures for practitioners. |
Keyword | Diebold–mariano Test Forecast Accuracy Nonparametric Volatility Estimation |
DOI | 10.1002/jae.3050 |
URL | View the original |
Indexed By | SSCI |
Language | 英語English |
WOS Research Area | Business & Economics ; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences |
WOS Subject | Economics ; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods |
WOS ID | WOS:001206012100001 |
Publisher | WILEY, 111 RIVER ST, HOBOKEN 07030-5774, NJ |
Scopus ID | 2-s2.0-85191147968 |
Fulltext Access | |
Citation statistics | |
Document Type | Journal article |
Collection | Faculty of Social Sciences DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS |
Corresponding Author | Harvey, David I. |
Affiliation | 1.School of Economics, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, United Kingdom 2.Department of Economics, University of Macau, Macao |
Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Harvey, David I.,Leybourne, Stephen J.,Zu, Yang. Tests for equal forecast accuracy under heteroskedasticity[J]. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2024, 1-20. |
APA | Harvey, David I.., Leybourne, Stephen J.., & Zu, Yang (2024). Tests for equal forecast accuracy under heteroskedasticity. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1-20. |
MLA | Harvey, David I.,et al."Tests for equal forecast accuracy under heteroskedasticity".Journal of Applied Econometrics (2024):1-20. |
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