Residential College | false |
Status | 已發表Published |
China'S DEBT CHALLENGE: STYLIZED FACTS, DRIVERS and POLICY IMPLICATIONS | |
Ma, Guonan1; Laurenceson, James2 | |
2017-10-16 | |
Source Publication | Singapore Economic Review |
ISSN | 0217-5908 |
Volume | 64Issue:4Pages:815-837 |
Abstract | This paper begins by showing that even after conditioning for factors that might justifiably lead to a country having relatively high leverage, China remains a debt outlier. In this sense, China can be regarded as over-leveraged and its debt levels may present potential risks to growth and financial stability. The corporate sector is central to China's debt story, accounting for two-thirds of the total. Moreover, the corporate sector has been mostly responsible for China's leverage cycles, including the leveraging up since 2008 and an earlier deleveraging phase starting in 2003. Two major but under-appreciated drivers of Chinese corporate leverage cycles are then identified. The most important is the share of internally funded corporate capital expenditure, which is a combined consequence of evolving corporate earnings and capital expenditure. The second is the rising importance of real estate and construction firms as holders of corporate debt. China's corporate leverage landscape is also shown to be more complex than a story of zombie state-owned enterprises in industrial segments with excess capacity being ever-greened with loans from state banks. A balanced mix of policy responses will be needed to manage a warranted and orderly deleveraging cycle in the years ahead. |
Keyword | Capital Expenditure China Corporate Earnings Debt Leverage |
DOI | 10.1142/S0217590817450011 |
URL | View the original |
Indexed By | SSCI ; CPCI-SSH |
Language | 英語English |
WOS Research Area | Business & Economics |
WOS Subject | Economics |
WOS ID | WOS:000486379500002 |
Scopus ID | 2-s2.0-85031928708 |
Fulltext Access | |
Citation statistics | |
Document Type | Journal article |
Collection | Faculty of Business Administration |
Corresponding Author | Ma, Guonan |
Affiliation | 1.Faculty of Business Administration, University of Macau, E22, Taipa, Avenida da Universidade, Macao 2.Australia-China Relations Institute (ACRI), University of Technology Sydney (UTS), Tower Building, Ultimo, Level 18, 15 Broadway, 2007, Australia |
First Author Affilication | Faculty of Business Administration |
Corresponding Author Affilication | Faculty of Business Administration |
Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Ma, Guonan,Laurenceson, James. China'S DEBT CHALLENGE: STYLIZED FACTS, DRIVERS and POLICY IMPLICATIONS[J]. Singapore Economic Review, 2017, 64(4), 815-837. |
APA | Ma, Guonan., & Laurenceson, James (2017). China'S DEBT CHALLENGE: STYLIZED FACTS, DRIVERS and POLICY IMPLICATIONS. Singapore Economic Review, 64(4), 815-837. |
MLA | Ma, Guonan,et al."China'S DEBT CHALLENGE: STYLIZED FACTS, DRIVERS and POLICY IMPLICATIONS".Singapore Economic Review 64.4(2017):815-837. |
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