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China'S DEBT CHALLENGE: STYLIZED FACTS, DRIVERS and POLICY IMPLICATIONS
Ma, Guonan1; Laurenceson, James2
2017-10-16
Source PublicationSingapore Economic Review
ISSN0217-5908
Volume64Issue:4Pages:815-837
Abstract

This paper begins by showing that even after conditioning for factors that might justifiably lead to a country having relatively high leverage, China remains a debt outlier. In this sense, China can be regarded as over-leveraged and its debt levels may present potential risks to growth and financial stability. The corporate sector is central to China's debt story, accounting for two-thirds of the total. Moreover, the corporate sector has been mostly responsible for China's leverage cycles, including the leveraging up since 2008 and an earlier deleveraging phase starting in 2003. Two major but under-appreciated drivers of Chinese corporate leverage cycles are then identified. The most important is the share of internally funded corporate capital expenditure, which is a combined consequence of evolving corporate earnings and capital expenditure. The second is the rising importance of real estate and construction firms as holders of corporate debt. China's corporate leverage landscape is also shown to be more complex than a story of zombie state-owned enterprises in industrial segments with excess capacity being ever-greened with loans from state banks. A balanced mix of policy responses will be needed to manage a warranted and orderly deleveraging cycle in the years ahead.

KeywordCapital Expenditure China Corporate Earnings Debt Leverage
DOI10.1142/S0217590817450011
URLView the original
Indexed BySSCI ; CPCI-SSH
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaBusiness & Economics
WOS SubjectEconomics
WOS IDWOS:000486379500002
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85031928708
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Document TypeJournal article
CollectionFaculty of Business Administration
Corresponding AuthorMa, Guonan
Affiliation1.Faculty of Business Administration, University of Macau, E22, Taipa, Avenida da Universidade, Macao
2.Australia-China Relations Institute (ACRI), University of Technology Sydney (UTS), Tower Building, Ultimo, Level 18, 15 Broadway, 2007, Australia
First Author AffilicationFaculty of Business Administration
Corresponding Author AffilicationFaculty of Business Administration
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Ma, Guonan,Laurenceson, James. China'S DEBT CHALLENGE: STYLIZED FACTS, DRIVERS and POLICY IMPLICATIONS[J]. Singapore Economic Review, 2017, 64(4), 815-837.
APA Ma, Guonan., & Laurenceson, James (2017). China'S DEBT CHALLENGE: STYLIZED FACTS, DRIVERS and POLICY IMPLICATIONS. Singapore Economic Review, 64(4), 815-837.
MLA Ma, Guonan,et al."China'S DEBT CHALLENGE: STYLIZED FACTS, DRIVERS and POLICY IMPLICATIONS".Singapore Economic Review 64.4(2017):815-837.
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