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Shadow banking and the property market in china
Lai, Rose Neng1; Van Order, Robert2
2019-09-01
Source PublicationInternational Real Estate Review
ISSN2154-8919
Volume22Issue:3Pages:359-398
Abstract

This paper studies the evolution of property values and the connections between shadow banking and property markets in China. We use Pooled Mean Group estimation to analyze Chinese house prices in 65 cities from 2007-2016, define the “fundamentals” of housing prices with the Gordon dividend discount model, and use lagged rents, prices, real and nominal interest rates, and shadow banking activity as short term explanatory factors. We find that the cities tend to share long run fundamentals and adjust relatively quickly to deviations from the fundamentals. We do not find bubbles; rather houses are like growth stocks with house prices rapidly chasing growing rents. More importantly, we find that house prices increase more quickly with the availability of shadow banking funds, which have grown rapidly.

KeywordChinese Housing Market Pooled Mean Group Estimation Shadow Banking
DOI10.53383/100285
URLView the original
Indexed BySCIE ; SSCI ; A&HCI ; CPCI-S ; CPCI-SSH ; BKCI-S ; BKCI-SSH ; ESCI ; IC ; CCR-E ; KCI ; RSCI ; SciELO ; 核心期刊 ; CA ; JST ; AJ ; EI ; CSCD ; CSSCI ; 卓越期刊 ; TCI-HSS ; THCI ; TSSCI ; 其他
Language英語English
WOS IDWOS:000505221300003
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85118949978
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Citation statistics
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionDEPARTMENT OF FINANCE AND BUSINESS ECONOMICS
Affiliation1.Department of Finance and Business Economics, University of Macau, Taipa, Macao
2.George Washington University, Washington, United States
First Author AffilicationUniversity of Macau
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Lai, Rose Neng,Van Order, Robert. Shadow banking and the property market in china[J]. International Real Estate Review, 2019, 22(3), 359-398.
APA Lai, Rose Neng., & Van Order, Robert (2019). Shadow banking and the property market in china. International Real Estate Review, 22(3), 359-398.
MLA Lai, Rose Neng,et al."Shadow banking and the property market in china".International Real Estate Review 22.3(2019):359-398.
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