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Conformalized temporal convolutional quantile regression networks for wind power interval forecasting
Hu, Jianming1; Luo, Qingxi1; Tang, Jingwei2; Heng, Jiani3; Deng, Yuwen1
2022-02-21
Source PublicationENERGY
ISSN0360-5442
Volume248Pages:123497
Abstract

Wind power interval prediction is an effective technique for quantifying forecasting uncertainty caused by the intermittent and fluctuant characteristics of wind energy. Valid coverage and short interval length are the two most critical targets in interval prediction to attain reliable and accurate information, providing effective support for decision-makers to better control the risks in the power planning. This paper proposes a novel interval prediction approach named conformalized temporal convolutional quantile regression networks (CTCQRN) which combines the conformalized quantile regression (CQR) algorithm with a temporal convolutional network (TCN), without making any distributional assumptions. The proposed model inherits the advantages of quantile regression and conformal prediction that is fully adaptive to heteroscedasticity implicated in data, and meets the theoretical guarantee of valid coverage. As opposed to conventional RNN-based approaches, the adopted TCN architecture frees from suffering iterative propagation and gradient vanishing/explosion, and can handle very long sequences in a parallel manner. Case studies on two different geographical wind power datasets show that the proposed model has a distinct edge over benchmark models in goals of valid coverage and narrow interval bandwidth, which can help to ensure the economic and secure operation of the electric power system.

KeywordConformalized Quantile Regression Temporal Convolutional Network Wind Power Interval Prediction
DOI10.1016/j.energy.2022.123497
URLView the original
Indexed BySCIE
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaThermodynamics ; Energy & Fuels
WOS SubjectThermodynamics ; Energy & Fuels
WOS IDWOS:000792627100007
PublisherElsevier Ltd
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85125656817
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Citation statistics
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionFaculty of Science and Technology
DEPARTMENT OF MATHEMATICS
Corresponding AuthorLuo, Qingxi
Affiliation1.College of Economics and Statistics, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou, China
2.Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Technology, University of Macau, Macau, China
3.Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190, China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Hu, Jianming,Luo, Qingxi,Tang, Jingwei,et al. Conformalized temporal convolutional quantile regression networks for wind power interval forecasting[J]. ENERGY, 2022, 248, 123497.
APA Hu, Jianming., Luo, Qingxi., Tang, Jingwei., Heng, Jiani., & Deng, Yuwen (2022). Conformalized temporal convolutional quantile regression networks for wind power interval forecasting. ENERGY, 248, 123497.
MLA Hu, Jianming,et al."Conformalized temporal convolutional quantile regression networks for wind power interval forecasting".ENERGY 248(2022):123497.
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