Residential Collegefalse
Status已發表Published
Cost-Oriented Prediction Intervals: On Bridging the Gap Between Forecasting and Decision
Zhao, Changfei1; Wan, Can1; Song, Yonghua1,2
2022-07
Source PublicationIEEE Transactions on Power Systems
ISSN0885-8950
Volume37Issue:4Pages:3048-3062
Abstract

As an efficient tool for uncertainty quantification of wind power forecasting, prediction intervals (PIs) provide essential prognosis to power system operator. Merely improving the statistical quality of PIs with respect to calibration and sharpness cannot always contribute to the operational value for specific decision-making issue. In order to bridge the gap between forecasting and decision, this paper proposes a novel cost-oriented machine learning (COML) framework that unifies nonparametric wind power PI construction and decision-making. Formulated as a bilevel programming model, the COML minimizes the operational costs of decision-making process by adaptively adjusting the quantile proportion pair of PIs resulting from extreme learning machine based quantile regression. The hierarchical optimization model of the COML is equivalently simplified as a single level nonlinear programming problem. Then an enhanced branch-and-contract (EBC) algorithm with innovative bounds contraction strategy is devised to efficiently capture the optimum of the single level problem with bilinear nonconvexity. Numerical experiments based on actual wind farm data simulate the online forecasting and decision process for wind power offering. Comprehensive comparisons verify the substantial superiority of the proposed COML methodology in terms of forecasting quality, operational value, as well as computational efficiency for practical application.

KeywordCosts Decision Making Decision Making Forecasting Forecasting Machine Learning Prediction Interval Probabilistic Logic Renewable Energy Renewable Energy Sources Uncertainty Uncertainty Wind Power Generation
DOI10.1109/TPWRS.2021.3128567
URLView the original
Indexed BySCIE
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaEngineering
WOS SubjectEngineering, Electrical & Electronic
WOS IDWOS:000812533700048
PublisherIEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC445 HOES LANE, PISCATAWAY, NJ 08855-4141
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85123281924
Fulltext Access
Citation statistics
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionTHE STATE KEY LABORATORY OF INTERNET OF THINGS FOR SMART CITY (UNIVERSITY OF MACAU)
Corresponding AuthorWan, Can
Affiliation1.Zhejiang Univ, Coll Elect Engn, Hangzhou 310027, Peoples R China
2.Univ Macau, State Key Lab Internet Things Smart City, Taipa, Macao, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Zhao, Changfei,Wan, Can,Song, Yonghua. Cost-Oriented Prediction Intervals: On Bridging the Gap Between Forecasting and Decision[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 2022, 37(4), 3048-3062.
APA Zhao, Changfei., Wan, Can., & Song, Yonghua (2022). Cost-Oriented Prediction Intervals: On Bridging the Gap Between Forecasting and Decision. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 37(4), 3048-3062.
MLA Zhao, Changfei,et al."Cost-Oriented Prediction Intervals: On Bridging the Gap Between Forecasting and Decision".IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 37.4(2022):3048-3062.
Files in This Item:
There are no files associated with this item.
Related Services
Recommend this item
Bookmark
Usage statistics
Export to Endnote
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Zhao, Changfei]'s Articles
[Wan, Can]'s Articles
[Song, Yonghua]'s Articles
Baidu academic
Similar articles in Baidu academic
[Zhao, Changfei]'s Articles
[Wan, Can]'s Articles
[Song, Yonghua]'s Articles
Bing Scholar
Similar articles in Bing Scholar
[Zhao, Changfei]'s Articles
[Wan, Can]'s Articles
[Song, Yonghua]'s Articles
Terms of Use
No data!
Social Bookmark/Share
All comments (0)
No comment.
 

Items in the repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.