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Day-ahead Power Forecasting Model for a Photovoltaic Plant in Macao Based on Weather Classification Using SVM/PCC/LM-ANN
Zhipeng Zhou1; Li Liu1; Ning Yi Dai1,2
2021-12-23
Conference Name2021 IEEE Sustainable Power and Energy Conference (iSPEC)
Source PublicationProceedings - 2021 IEEE Sustainable Power and Energy Conference: Energy Transition for Carbon Neutrality, iSPEC 2021
Pages775-780
Conference Date23-25 December 2021
Conference PlaceNanjing, China
CountryChina
PublisherIEEE
Abstract

With the growing demand for clean energy, the world's installed solar energy capacity has increased substantially in the last few years. But the power output of photovoltaic (PV) panels varies greatly under different weather conditions. To improve PV power stations' prediction accuracy, this paper designs a forecasting system that uses artificial neural networks (ANNs) optimized by Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) algorithm based on weather classification for 1-day ahead hourly forecasting. In this process, first, the weather is divided into three types: A - sunny, B - cloudy and C - rainy by using support vector machine (SVM) method. Then, the correlation between meteorological factors and PV power output is analyzed through Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) method in order to select the forecasting model's input. Finally, the corresponding LM-ANN forecasting sub-models are established under each weather type. After applying the trained three sub-models to a small PV power plant in Macao, the results prove that the proposed forecasting system achieves better prediction effect than traditional backpropagation ANN model.

KeywordArtificial Neural Networks (Anns) Levenberg-marquardt Algorithm Photovoltaic Weather Classification
DOI10.1109/iSPEC53008.2021.9735777
URLView the original
Indexed ByEI
Language英語English
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85128050050
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Document TypeConference paper
CollectionTHE STATE KEY LABORATORY OF INTERNET OF THINGS FOR SMART CITY (UNIVERSITY OF MACAU)
DEPARTMENT OF ELECTRICAL AND COMPUTER ENGINEERING
Affiliation1.State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City and Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering University of Macau Macao, China
2.University of Macau and Zhuhai UM Science & Technology Research Institute Macao and Zhuhai, China
First Author AffilicationUniversity of Macau
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Zhipeng Zhou,Li Liu,Ning Yi Dai. Day-ahead Power Forecasting Model for a Photovoltaic Plant in Macao Based on Weather Classification Using SVM/PCC/LM-ANN[C]:IEEE, 2021, 775-780.
APA Zhipeng Zhou., Li Liu., & Ning Yi Dai (2021). Day-ahead Power Forecasting Model for a Photovoltaic Plant in Macao Based on Weather Classification Using SVM/PCC/LM-ANN. Proceedings - 2021 IEEE Sustainable Power and Energy Conference: Energy Transition for Carbon Neutrality, iSPEC 2021, 775-780.
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