Residential College | false |
Status | 已發表Published |
Sparse Bayesian Variable Selection with Correlation Prior for Forecasting Macroeconomic Variable using Highly Correlated Predictors | |
Aijun Yang1,2; Ju Xiang3; Lianjie Shu4; Hongqiang Yang1 | |
2018-02 | |
Source Publication | COMPUTATIONAL ECONOMICS |
ABS Journal Level | 1 |
ISSN | 0927-7099 |
Volume | 51Issue:2Pages:323-338 |
Abstract | In this paper, we propose an integrated sparse Bayesian variable selection in regressions with a large number of possibly highly correlated macroeconomic predictors. The variable selection is performed through the stochastic search variable selection technique. We assign a sparse prior distribution on the regression parameters and a correlation prior distribution for the binary vector. The performance of the proposed variable selection method is illustrated in forecasting one major macroeconomic time series of the US economy. Empirical results show that in terms of absolute forecast error and log predictive likelihood, our proposed method performs better than other three methods. |
Keyword | Sparse Bayesian Variable Selection Correlation Prior Highly Correlated Predictors Out-of-sample Forecasting |
DOI | 10.1007/s10614-017-9741-1 |
URL | View the original |
Indexed By | SCIE ; SSCI |
Language | 英語English |
WOS Research Area | Business & Economics ; Mathematics |
WOS Subject | Economics ; Management ; Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications |
WOS ID | WOS:000422651100007 |
Publisher | SPRINGER |
The Source to Article | WOS |
Scopus ID | 2-s2.0-85028807493 |
Fulltext Access | |
Citation statistics | |
Document Type | Journal article |
Collection | DEPARTMENT OF ACCOUNTING AND INFORMATION MANAGEMENT |
Corresponding Author | Ju Xiang |
Affiliation | 1.College of Economics and Management, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, China 2.Key Laboratory of Statistical Information Technology and Data Mining, State Statistics Bureau, Chengdu, China 3.Department of Finance, South University of Science and Technology of China, Shenzhen, China 4.Faculty of Business Administration, University of Macau, Macau, China |
Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Aijun Yang,Ju Xiang,Lianjie Shu,et al. Sparse Bayesian Variable Selection with Correlation Prior for Forecasting Macroeconomic Variable using Highly Correlated Predictors[J]. COMPUTATIONAL ECONOMICS, 2018, 51(2), 323-338. |
APA | Aijun Yang., Ju Xiang., Lianjie Shu., & Hongqiang Yang (2018). Sparse Bayesian Variable Selection with Correlation Prior for Forecasting Macroeconomic Variable using Highly Correlated Predictors. COMPUTATIONAL ECONOMICS, 51(2), 323-338. |
MLA | Aijun Yang,et al."Sparse Bayesian Variable Selection with Correlation Prior for Forecasting Macroeconomic Variable using Highly Correlated Predictors".COMPUTATIONAL ECONOMICS 51.2(2018):323-338. |
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