The pullout resistance of soil nail is a key parameter in soil nailing design. Pullout resistance is affected by many factors, such as overburden pressure, grouting pressure, soil dilation, and degree of saturation of soil. Because of the complexity of the pullout mechanism, some factors have not been well incorporated in the current soil nail design methods. In this study, Bayesian analysis is performed to investigate the relative importance of several key factors and to build a new design formula to estimate maximum pullout shear stress of grouted soil nails. By using a series of laboratory soil nail pullout test data, Bayesian analysis is performed to select a predictive formula with suitable complexity and to identify its parameters. It is found that the most important factors are the degree of saturation and the product of grouting pressure and overburden pressure. It is shown that the proposed optimal model exhibits significantly stronger correlation with measurements than the existing effective-stress method for laboratory and field tests.