Residential College | false |
Status | 已發表Published |
Optimism-driven Decisions of Real Estate Developers under Demand Uncertainty | |
Xu, Rui-hui1; Lai, Rose Neng2 | |
2018-04-01 | |
Source Publication | JOURNAL OF REAL ESTATE RESEARCH |
ISSN | 0896-5803 |
Volume | 40Issue:2Pages:267-308 |
Abstract | We develop a set of theoretical models to show how differences in real estate developers' optimism about market demand affects construction and sales decisions. The model is a variation of asymmetric Cournot duopoly where developers choose levels of output conditioned on their rivals' output and their own levels of optimism in a stochastic environment. Our results show that optimistic developers construct more housing and hold more inventory when facing higher demand uncertainty. Developers' overconfidence creates value in terms of optimal profit and market share. We also discuss how updating beliefs over multi periods could turn a pessimistic developer to an optimistic one, and vice versa. The paper thus provides some behavioral insights into puzzling phenomena such as overconfidence, overbuilding, construction timing, and inventory holding. |
Keyword | Optimism Demand Uncertainty Heterogeneous Beliefs Real Estate Developers |
DOI | 10.1080/10835547.2018.12091500 |
URL | View the original |
Indexed By | SSCI |
Language | 英語English |
WOS Research Area | Business & Economics |
WOS Subject | Business, Finance ; Economics |
WOS ID | WOS:000441295700005 |
Publisher | AMER REAL ESTATE SOC |
The Source to Article | WOS |
Scopus ID | 2-s2.0-85120001845 |
Fulltext Access | |
Citation statistics | |
Document Type | Journal article |
Collection | DEPARTMENT OF FINANCE AND BUSINESS ECONOMICS |
Corresponding Author | Lai, Rose Neng |
Affiliation | 1.The People's Bank of China (PBC) 2.University of Macau |
Corresponding Author Affilication | University of Macau |
Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Xu, Rui-hui,Lai, Rose Neng. Optimism-driven Decisions of Real Estate Developers under Demand Uncertainty[J]. JOURNAL OF REAL ESTATE RESEARCH, 2018, 40(2), 267-308. |
APA | Xu, Rui-hui., & Lai, Rose Neng (2018). Optimism-driven Decisions of Real Estate Developers under Demand Uncertainty. JOURNAL OF REAL ESTATE RESEARCH, 40(2), 267-308. |
MLA | Xu, Rui-hui,et al."Optimism-driven Decisions of Real Estate Developers under Demand Uncertainty".JOURNAL OF REAL ESTATE RESEARCH 40.2(2018):267-308. |
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