Residential College | false |
Status | 已發表Published |
Predicting ground-level ozone concentrations by adaptive Bayesian model averaging of statistical seasonal models | |
K. M. Mok; K. V. Yuen; K. I. Hoi; K. M. Chao; D. Lopes | |
2017-10-24 | |
Source Publication | Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment |
ISSN | 1436-3240 |
Volume | 32Issue:5Pages:1283-1297 |
Abstract | While seasonal time-varying models should generally be used to predict the daily concentration of ground-level ozone given its strong seasonal cycles, the sudden switching of models according to their designated period in an annual operational forecasting system may affect their performance, especially during the season's transitional period in which the starting date and duration time can vary from year to year. This paper studies the effectiveness of an adaptive Bayesian Model Averaging scheme with the support of a transitional prediction model in solving the problem. The scheme continuously evaluates the probabilities of all the ozone prediction models (ozone season, nonozone season, and the transitional period) in a forecasting system, which are then used to provide a weighted average forecast. The scheme has been adopted in predicting the daily maximum of 8-h averaged ozone concentration in Macau for a period of 2 years (2008 and 2009), with results proved to be satisfactory. |
Keyword | Adaptive Bayesian Model Averaging Kalman Filter Model Switching Ozone Prediction Statistical Model |
DOI | 10.1007/s00477-017-1473-1 |
URL | View the original |
Indexed By | SCIE |
Language | 英語English |
WOS Research Area | Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Mathematics ; Water Resources |
WOS Subject | Engineering, Environmental ; Engineering, Civil ; Environmental Sciences ; Statistics & Probability ; Water Resources |
WOS ID | WOS:000429464900006 |
Publisher | SPRINGER |
The Source to Article | WOS |
Scopus ID | 2-s2.0-85032022984 |
Fulltext Access | |
Citation statistics | |
Document Type | Journal article |
Collection | DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING Faculty of Science and Technology |
Corresponding Author | K. I. Hoi |
Affiliation | Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Macau, Avenida da Universidade, Taipa, Macau SAR, China |
First Author Affilication | University of Macau |
Corresponding Author Affilication | University of Macau |
Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | K. M. Mok,K. V. Yuen,K. I. Hoi,et al. Predicting ground-level ozone concentrations by adaptive Bayesian model averaging of statistical seasonal models[J]. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 2017, 32(5), 1283-1297. |
APA | K. M. Mok., K. V. Yuen., K. I. Hoi., K. M. Chao., & D. Lopes (2017). Predicting ground-level ozone concentrations by adaptive Bayesian model averaging of statistical seasonal models. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 32(5), 1283-1297. |
MLA | K. M. Mok,et al."Predicting ground-level ozone concentrations by adaptive Bayesian model averaging of statistical seasonal models".Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment 32.5(2017):1283-1297. |
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