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Wind speed forecasting based on multi-objective grey wolf optimisation algorithm, weighted information criterion, and wind energy conversion system: A case study in Eastern China
Wang, Chen1; Zhang, Shenghui2; Xiao, Ling3; Fu, Tonglin4,5,6
2021-09-01
Source PublicationENERGY CONVERSION AND MANAGEMENT
ISSN0196-8904
Volume243Pages:114402
Abstract

Accurate wind speed forecasting and effective wind energy conversion can reduce the operating cost of wind farms. However, many previous studies have been restricted to analyses of wind speed forecasting and wind energy conversion, which may result in poor decisions and inaccurate power scheduling for wind farms. This study develops a wind energy decision system based on forecasting and simulation, which includes two modules: wind speed forecasting and wind energy conversion. In the wind speed forecasting module, an effective secondary denoising strategy based on singular spectrum analysis and ensemble empirical mode decomposition was used to eliminate chaotic noise and extract important features from the original data. Then, a model selection called weighted information criterion was applied to select optimal sub-models for the combined model. To improve the forecasting performance of the combined model, a modified multi-objective grey wolf optimisation algorithm was adopted to optimise the parameters of the sub-models and the weight of the combined model. In the wind energy conversion module, a wind energy conversion curve was established by simulating historical electrical energy data and wind speed data, which can effectively analyse the power generation at each site. The numerical results show that compared with the mean absolute percentage error values of the single models, that of the combined model is reduced by up to 35.57%. Moreover, the standard deviation of the absolute percentage error is decreased by up to 49.88% for wind speed forecasting, and the R of the wind energy conversion curve is more than 0.9. Therefore, the proposed combined method can serve as an effective tool for wind farm management and decision-making.

KeywordCombined Forecasting Model Model Selection Multi-objective Algorithm Wind Energy Conversion
DOI10.1016/j.enconman.2021.114402
URLView the original
Indexed BySCIE
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaThermodynamics ; Energy & Fuels ; Mechanics
WOS SubjectThermodynamics ; Energy & Fuels ; Mechanics
WOS IDWOS:000685054400003
PublisherPERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD, THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD OX5 1GB, ENGLAND
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85108623580
Fulltext Access
Citation statistics
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionFaculty of Science and Technology
THE STATE KEY LABORATORY OF INTERNET OF THINGS FOR SMART CITY (UNIVERSITY OF MACAU)
DEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER AND INFORMATION SCIENCE
Corresponding AuthorZhang, Shenghui
Affiliation1.School of Intelligent System Engineering, Sun Yat-Sen University, Shenzhen, 518107, China
2.State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City, Department of Computer and Information Science Organization, University of Macau, Macau, China
3.School of Economics and Management, Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Chongqing, 400065, China
4.School of Mathematics and Statistics LongDong University, Qingyang, 745000, China
5.Shapotou Desert Research and Experiment Station, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, 730000, China
6.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
Corresponding Author AffilicationUniversity of Macau
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Wang, Chen,Zhang, Shenghui,Xiao, Ling,et al. Wind speed forecasting based on multi-objective grey wolf optimisation algorithm, weighted information criterion, and wind energy conversion system: A case study in Eastern China[J]. ENERGY CONVERSION AND MANAGEMENT, 2021, 243, 114402.
APA Wang, Chen., Zhang, Shenghui., Xiao, Ling., & Fu, Tonglin (2021). Wind speed forecasting based on multi-objective grey wolf optimisation algorithm, weighted information criterion, and wind energy conversion system: A case study in Eastern China. ENERGY CONVERSION AND MANAGEMENT, 243, 114402.
MLA Wang, Chen,et al."Wind speed forecasting based on multi-objective grey wolf optimisation algorithm, weighted information criterion, and wind energy conversion system: A case study in Eastern China".ENERGY CONVERSION AND MANAGEMENT 243(2021):114402.
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