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Non-linear link between temperature difference and COVID-19: Excluding the effect of population density
Ding, Yongmei1; Gao, Liyuan1; Shao, Ning Yi2
2021-03-07
Source PublicationJournal of Infection in Developing Countries
ISSN1972-2680
Volume15Issue:2Pages:230-236
Abstract

Introduction: The spatiotemporal patterns of Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is detected in the United States, which shows temperature difference (TD) with cumulative hysteresis effect significantly changes the daily new confirmed cases after eliminating the interference of population density. Methodology: The nonlinear feature of updated cases is captured through Generalized Additive Mixed Model (GAMM) with threshold points; Exposure-response curve suggests that daily confirmed cases is changed at the different stages of TD according to the threshold points of piecewise function, which traces out the rule of updated cases under different meteorological condition. Results: Our results show that the confirmed cases decreased by 0.390% (95% CI: -0.478∼ -0.302) for increasing each one degree of TD if TD is less than 11.5°C; It will increase by 0.302% (95% CI: 0.215 ∼ 0.388) for every 1°C increase in the TD (lag0-4) at the interval [11.5, 16]; Meanwhile the number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases will increase by 0.321% (95% CI: 0.142 ∼ 0.499) for every 1°C increase in the TD (lag0-4) when the TD (lag0-4) is over 16°C, and the most fluctuation occurred on Sunday. The results of the sensitivity analysis confirmed our model robust. Conclusions: In US, this interval effect of TD reminds us that it is urgent to control the spread and infection of COVID-19 when TD becomes greater in autumn and the ongoing winter.

KeywordCoronavirus Nonlinearity Population Density Temperature Difference
DOI10.3855/jidc.13926
URLView the original
Indexed BySCIE ; SSCI
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaInfectious Diseases
WOS SubjectInfectious Diseases
WOS IDWOS:000631902900009
PublisherJ INFECTION DEVELOPING COUNTRIESJIDC CENT OFF PORTO CONTE RICERCHE RES CTR, S P 55, PORTO CONTE CAPO CACCIA KM 8.400 LOC, TRAMANIGLIO 07041, ITALY
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85102587948
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Document TypeJournal article
CollectionFaculty of Health Sciences
Corresponding AuthorDing, Yongmei; Shao, Ning Yi
Affiliation1.Department of Mathematics and Statistics, College of Science, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei Province, China
2.Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Macau, Macau SAR, Macao
Corresponding Author AffilicationFaculty of Health Sciences
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Ding, Yongmei,Gao, Liyuan,Shao, Ning Yi. Non-linear link between temperature difference and COVID-19: Excluding the effect of population density[J]. Journal of Infection in Developing Countries, 2021, 15(2), 230-236.
APA Ding, Yongmei., Gao, Liyuan., & Shao, Ning Yi (2021). Non-linear link between temperature difference and COVID-19: Excluding the effect of population density. Journal of Infection in Developing Countries, 15(2), 230-236.
MLA Ding, Yongmei,et al."Non-linear link between temperature difference and COVID-19: Excluding the effect of population density".Journal of Infection in Developing Countries 15.2(2021):230-236.
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