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Status | 已發表Published |
Non-linear link between temperature difference and COVID-19: Excluding the effect of population density | |
Ding, Yongmei1; Gao, Liyuan1; Shao, Ning Yi2 | |
2021-03-07 | |
Source Publication | Journal of Infection in Developing Countries |
ISSN | 1972-2680 |
Volume | 15Issue:2Pages:230-236 |
Abstract | Introduction: The spatiotemporal patterns of Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is detected in the United States, which shows temperature difference (TD) with cumulative hysteresis effect significantly changes the daily new confirmed cases after eliminating the interference of population density. Methodology: The nonlinear feature of updated cases is captured through Generalized Additive Mixed Model (GAMM) with threshold points; Exposure-response curve suggests that daily confirmed cases is changed at the different stages of TD according to the threshold points of piecewise function, which traces out the rule of updated cases under different meteorological condition. Results: Our results show that the confirmed cases decreased by 0.390% (95% CI: -0.478∼ -0.302) for increasing each one degree of TD if TD is less than 11.5°C; It will increase by 0.302% (95% CI: 0.215 ∼ 0.388) for every 1°C increase in the TD (lag0-4) at the interval [11.5, 16]; Meanwhile the number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases will increase by 0.321% (95% CI: 0.142 ∼ 0.499) for every 1°C increase in the TD (lag0-4) when the TD (lag0-4) is over 16°C, and the most fluctuation occurred on Sunday. The results of the sensitivity analysis confirmed our model robust. Conclusions: In US, this interval effect of TD reminds us that it is urgent to control the spread and infection of COVID-19 when TD becomes greater in autumn and the ongoing winter. |
Keyword | Coronavirus Nonlinearity Population Density Temperature Difference |
DOI | 10.3855/jidc.13926 |
URL | View the original |
Indexed By | SCIE ; SSCI |
Language | 英語English |
WOS Research Area | Infectious Diseases |
WOS Subject | Infectious Diseases |
WOS ID | WOS:000631902900009 |
Publisher | J INFECTION DEVELOPING COUNTRIESJIDC CENT OFF PORTO CONTE RICERCHE RES CTR, S P 55, PORTO CONTE CAPO CACCIA KM 8.400 LOC, TRAMANIGLIO 07041, ITALY |
Scopus ID | 2-s2.0-85102587948 |
Fulltext Access | |
Citation statistics | |
Document Type | Journal article |
Collection | Faculty of Health Sciences |
Corresponding Author | Ding, Yongmei; Shao, Ning Yi |
Affiliation | 1.Department of Mathematics and Statistics, College of Science, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei Province, China 2.Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Macau, Macau SAR, Macao |
Corresponding Author Affilication | Faculty of Health Sciences |
Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Ding, Yongmei,Gao, Liyuan,Shao, Ning Yi. Non-linear link between temperature difference and COVID-19: Excluding the effect of population density[J]. Journal of Infection in Developing Countries, 2021, 15(2), 230-236. |
APA | Ding, Yongmei., Gao, Liyuan., & Shao, Ning Yi (2021). Non-linear link between temperature difference and COVID-19: Excluding the effect of population density. Journal of Infection in Developing Countries, 15(2), 230-236. |
MLA | Ding, Yongmei,et al."Non-linear link between temperature difference and COVID-19: Excluding the effect of population density".Journal of Infection in Developing Countries 15.2(2021):230-236. |
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