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Application and research for electricity price forecasting system based on multi-objective optimization and sub-models selection strategy
Fu, Tonglin1; Zhang, Shenghui2; Wang, Chen3
2020-04-08
Source PublicationSoft Computing
ISSN1432-7643
Volume24Issue:20Pages:15611-15637
Abstract

In general, electricity prices reflect the cost to build, finance, maintain, and operate power plants and the electricity grid. Therefore, the cost-optimized scheduling of industrial loads with accurate price forecasts is very important. As such, recent studies have attempted to combine models to forecast electricity prices more accurately. Earlier combined models have tended to ignore the selection of sub-models and data analyses, leading to poor forecasting performance. In order to select the best forecasting models in a combined model, we propose a hybrid electricity price forecasting system that includes a data analysis module, a sub-model selection strategy module, optimized forecasting processing, and a model evaluation module. As such, the hybrid system fully exploits the advantages of a single model, thus improving the forecasting performance of the combined model. The experimental results show that the proposed system selects optimal sub-models effectively and successfully identifies future trend changes in the electricity price. Thus, the system can be an effective tool in the planning and implementation of smart grids.

KeywordCombined Model Electricity Prices Hybrid Forecasting System Sub-models Selection Strategy
DOI10.1007/s00500-020-04888-7
URLView the original
Indexed BySCIE ; SSCI
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaComputer Science
WOS SubjectComputer Science, Artificial Intelligence ; Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications
WOS IDWOS:000556977100002
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85083360728
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Document TypeJournal article
CollectionFaculty of Science and Technology
Corresponding AuthorZhang, Shenghui
Affiliation1.School of Mathematics and Statistics, LongDong University, Qingyang, 745000, China
2.Faculty of Science and Technology, University of Macau, 999078, Macao
3.School of Information Science and Engineering, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
Corresponding Author AffilicationFaculty of Science and Technology
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Fu, Tonglin,Zhang, Shenghui,Wang, Chen. Application and research for electricity price forecasting system based on multi-objective optimization and sub-models selection strategy[J]. Soft Computing, 2020, 24(20), 15611-15637.
APA Fu, Tonglin., Zhang, Shenghui., & Wang, Chen (2020). Application and research for electricity price forecasting system based on multi-objective optimization and sub-models selection strategy. Soft Computing, 24(20), 15611-15637.
MLA Fu, Tonglin,et al."Application and research for electricity price forecasting system based on multi-objective optimization and sub-models selection strategy".Soft Computing 24.20(2020):15611-15637.
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