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Regime shift, speculation, and stock price
Du, Ke1; Fu, Yishu2; Qin, Zhenjiang3; Zhang, Shuoxun4
2020-01-24
Source PublicationResearch in International Business and Finance
ABS Journal Level2
ISSN0275-5319
Volume52Pages:101181
Abstract

We investigate the impacts of speculation on stock price and return volatility in a framework with regime shifting. We find that greater difference in beliefs about the probability of bad state leads to higher stock prices. The intuition is that in periods of higher dispersion of beliefs, the investors perceive greater speculative opportunities, leading to increased demands and valuations of the stock. When investors agree with each other on the state of dividend growth, they have a stronger incentive to invest in the riskless bond, when becoming more pessimistic about the dividend growth. As a result, the demand and the valuations of stock decrease. Moreover, higher level of heterogeneity in beliefs gives rise to higher volatility of the stock returns, even in the absence of dividend shocks. Furthermore, with homogeneous beliefs, return volatility with respect to investors’ beliefs follows an inverted-U shape.

KeywordEquilibrium Heterogeneous Beliefs Regime Shifting Return Volatility Stock Price
DOI10.1016/j.ribaf.2020.101181
URLView the original
Indexed BySSCI
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaBusiness & Economics
WOS SubjectBusiness, Finance
WOS IDWOS:000522397200035
PublisherELSEVIER
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85078771305
Fulltext Access
Citation statistics
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionFaculty of Business Administration
DEPARTMENT OF FINANCE AND BUSINESS ECONOMICS
Corresponding AuthorZhang, Shuoxun
Affiliation1.Institute of Financial Studies, Southwestern University of Finance & Economics, China
2.Institute of Chinese Financial Studies, Southwestern University of Finance & Economics, China
3.Faculty of Business Administration, University of Macau, China
4.Department of Finance, School of Economics & Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics, Xiamen University, China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Du, Ke,Fu, Yishu,Qin, Zhenjiang,et al. Regime shift, speculation, and stock price[J]. Research in International Business and Finance, 2020, 52, 101181.
APA Du, Ke., Fu, Yishu., Qin, Zhenjiang., & Zhang, Shuoxun (2020). Regime shift, speculation, and stock price. Research in International Business and Finance, 52, 101181.
MLA Du, Ke,et al."Regime shift, speculation, and stock price".Research in International Business and Finance 52(2020):101181.
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