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Individual Preference for Longshots
Chark, Robin1; Chew, Soo Hong2; Zhong, Songfa2
2019-03-08
Source PublicationJournal of the European Economic Association
ABS Journal Level4
ISSN1542-4766
Volume18Issue:2Pages:1009-1039
Abstract

Results from studies on risk taking behavior suggest that people tend to be risk seeking when making choices over lotteries that involve longshots: small probabilities of winning sizable payoffs. To investigate preferences over longshots systematically, we conduct an incentivized experiment using state lotteries in China, each involving a single prize and fixed winning odds. This enables our construction of single-prize lotteries involving winning odds between 10-5 and 10-1 and winning prizes ranging from RMB10 (about USD1.60) to RMB10,000,000 (about USD1.60 million) across different expected payoffs. For lotteries with expected payoffs of 1 and 10, subjects exhibit heterogeneous preferences for longshots: some prefer the smallest winning probability whereas others favor intermediate winning probabilities. As the expected payoff increases to 100, subjects become predominantly risk averse, even for the lowest winning probability of 10-5. Our findings pose challenges for utility models of decision making under risk.

DOI10.1093/jeea/jvz004
URLView the original
Indexed BySSCI
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaBusiness & Economics
WOS SubjectEconomics
WOS IDWOS:000537424200012
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85084447232
Fulltext Access
Citation statistics
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionDEPARTMENT OF INTEGRATED RESORT AND TOURISM MANAGEMENT
Corresponding AuthorChark, Robin
Affiliation1.University of Macau, Macao
2.Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, National University of Singapore, Singapore
First Author AffilicationUniversity of Macau
Corresponding Author AffilicationUniversity of Macau
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Chark, Robin,Chew, Soo Hong,Zhong, Songfa. Individual Preference for Longshots[J]. Journal of the European Economic Association, 2019, 18(2), 1009-1039.
APA Chark, Robin., Chew, Soo Hong., & Zhong, Songfa (2019). Individual Preference for Longshots. Journal of the European Economic Association, 18(2), 1009-1039.
MLA Chark, Robin,et al."Individual Preference for Longshots".Journal of the European Economic Association 18.2(2019):1009-1039.
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