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Simple use of BIC to Assess Model Selection Uncertainty: An Illustration using Mediation and Moderation Models
Wu, Huiping1; Cheung, Shu Fai2; Leung, Shing On3
2020-01-02
Source PublicationMultivariate Behavioral Research
ISSN0027-3171
Volume55Issue:1Pages:1-16
Abstract

The Bayesian information criterion (BIC) has been used sometimes in SEM, even adopting a frequentist approach. Using simple mediation and moderation models as examples, we form posterior probability distribution via using BIC, which we call the BIC posterior, to assess model selection uncertainty of a finite number of models. This is simple but rarely used. The posterior probability distribution can be used to form a credibility set of models and to incorporate prior probabilities for model comparisons and selections. This was validated by a large scale simulation and results showed that the approximation via the BIC posterior is very good except when both the sample sizes and magnitude of parameters are small. We applied the BIC posterior to a real data set, and it has the advantages of flexibility in incorporating prior, addressing overfitting problems, and giving a full picture of posterior distribution to assess model selection uncertainty.

KeywordBic Posterior Mediation And Moderation Model Selection Posterior Distribution
DOI10.1080/00273171.2019.1574546
URLView the original
Indexed BySCIE ; SSCI
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaMathematics ; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences ; Psychology
WOS SubjectMathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications ; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods ; Psychology, Experimental ; Statistics & Probability 5.439mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applicationssocial Sciences, Mathematical Methodspsychology, experimentalStatistics & Probability 5.439
WOS IDWOS:000511293200001
PublisherROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD2-4 PARK SQUARE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON OX14 4RN, OXON, ENGLAND
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85063696481
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Document TypeJournal article
CollectionDEPARTMENT OF PSYCHOLOGY
Corresponding AuthorLeung, Shing On
Affiliation1.College of Mathematics and Informatics, Fujian Normal University, Fujian, China
2.Department of Psychology, University of Macau, Macao
3.Faculty of Education, University of Macau, Macao
Corresponding Author AffilicationFaculty of Education
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Wu, Huiping,Cheung, Shu Fai,Leung, Shing On. Simple use of BIC to Assess Model Selection Uncertainty: An Illustration using Mediation and Moderation Models[J]. Multivariate Behavioral Research, 2020, 55(1), 1-16.
APA Wu, Huiping., Cheung, Shu Fai., & Leung, Shing On (2020). Simple use of BIC to Assess Model Selection Uncertainty: An Illustration using Mediation and Moderation Models. Multivariate Behavioral Research, 55(1), 1-16.
MLA Wu, Huiping,et al."Simple use of BIC to Assess Model Selection Uncertainty: An Illustration using Mediation and Moderation Models".Multivariate Behavioral Research 55.1(2020):1-16.
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