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Novel deep supervised ML models with feature selection approach for large-scale utilities and buildings short and medium-term load requirement forecasts
Ahmad, Tanveer1,2; Zhang, Hongcai1
2020-10-15
Source PublicationEnergy
ISSN0360-5442
Volume209Pages:118477
Abstract

Accurate energy analyses and forecasts not only impact a nation's energy stability/security and environment but also provide policymakers with a reliable framework for decision-making. The load forecast of buildings and electricity companies for the arrangement of risk/low-cost demand and supply resources that fulfill future government commitments, plans consumer targets, and respond appropriately for stockholders. This study introduces two novels deep supervised machine learning models, including: (i) fit Gaussian Kernel regression model with random feature expansion (RFEM-GKR); and (ii) non-parametric based k-NN (NPK-NNM) models for buildings and the utility companies load demand forecasts with a higher predictive potential, speed, and accuracy. Five-fold cross-validation is used to reduce prediction errors and to improve network generalization. Real-load consumption data from two different locations (utility company and office building) are used to analyze and validate the proposed models. Each location data is further divided into six different feature selection (MFS) states. Each state is composed of various (16, 19, 17, 09, 16, and 13) types of real-time energy consumption and climatic feature variables. The energy consumption behaviors are then analyzed in terms of the feature significance applied with 5 min, 30 min, and 1-h of time-based on short-, and medium-term intervals. Eleven distance metrics used to measure the number of the neighboring object and the number of objective functions of the model network for accuracy. With less computational time, higher precision, and high penetration levels of multiple input feature variables, the method RFEM-GKR is proven superior. Therefore, because of its high accuracy and stability, the proposed model can be a successful tool to predict energy consumption.

KeywordDeep Supervised Learning Models Multiple Feature Selection Short & Medium-term Forecasting Time Series Utilities And Building Load
DOI10.1016/j.energy.2020.118477
URLView the original
Indexed BySCIE
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaThermodynamics ; Energy & Fuels
WOS SubjectThermodynamics ; Energy & Fuels
WOS IDWOS:000569756500007
PublisherPERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD, THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD OX5 1GB, ENGLAND
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85088936492
Fulltext Access
Citation statistics
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionTHE STATE KEY LABORATORY OF INTERNET OF THINGS FOR SMART CITY (UNIVERSITY OF MACAU)
Corresponding AuthorZhang, Hongcai
Affiliation1.State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City, University of Macau, Macao, 999078, China
2.Energy and Electricity Research Center, International Energy College, Jinan University, Zhuhai, 519070, China
First Author AffilicationUniversity of Macau
Corresponding Author AffilicationUniversity of Macau
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Ahmad, Tanveer,Zhang, Hongcai. Novel deep supervised ML models with feature selection approach for large-scale utilities and buildings short and medium-term load requirement forecasts[J]. Energy, 2020, 209, 118477.
APA Ahmad, Tanveer., & Zhang, Hongcai (2020). Novel deep supervised ML models with feature selection approach for large-scale utilities and buildings short and medium-term load requirement forecasts. Energy, 209, 118477.
MLA Ahmad, Tanveer,et al."Novel deep supervised ML models with feature selection approach for large-scale utilities and buildings short and medium-term load requirement forecasts".Energy 209(2020):118477.
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