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Composite Monte Carlo decision making under high uncertainty of novel coronavirus epidemic using hybridized deep learning and fuzzy rule induction
Simon James Fong1,2; Gloria Li2; Nilanjan Dey3; Rubén González Crespo4; Enrique Herrera-Viedma5
2020-04-09
Source PublicationApplied Soft Computing
ISSN1568-4946
Volume93Pages:106282
Abstract

In the advent of the novel coronavirus epidemic since December 2019, governments and authorities have been struggling to make critical decisions under high uncertainty at their best efforts. In computer science, this represents a typical problem of machine learning over incomplete or limited data in early epidemic Composite Monte-Carlo (CMC) simulation is a forecasting method which extrapolates available data which are broken down from multiple correlated/casual micro-data sources into many possible future outcomes by drawing random samples from some probability distributions. For instance, the overall trend and propagation of the infested cases in China are influenced by the temporal–spatial data of the nearby cities around the Wuhan city (where the virus is originated from), in terms of the population density, travel mobility, medical resources such as hospital beds and the timeliness of quarantine control in each city etc. Hence a CMC is reliable only up to the closeness of the underlying statistical distribution of a CMC, that is supposed to represent the behaviour of the future events, and the correctness of the composite data relationships. In this paper, a case study of using CMC that is enhanced by deep learning network and fuzzy rule induction for gaining better stochastic insights about the epidemic development is experimented. Instead of applying simplistic and uniform assumptions for a MC which is a common practice, a deep learning-based CMC is used in conjunction of fuzzy rule induction techniques. As a result, decision makers are benefited from a better fitted MC outputs complemented by min–max rules that foretell about the extreme ranges of future possibilities with respect to the epidemic.

KeywordMonte Carlo Simulation Decision Support Covid-19 2019-ncov Coronavirus
DOI10.1016/j.asoc.2020.106282
URLView the original
Indexed BySCIE
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaComputer Science
WOS SubjectComputer Science, Artificial Intelligence ; Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications
WOS IDWOS:000554903300014
PublisherELSEVIER, RADARWEG 29, 1043 NX AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85084332073
Fulltext Access
Citation statistics
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionDEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER AND INFORMATION SCIENCE
Corresponding AuthorSimon James Fong; Nilanjan Dey
Affiliation1.Department of Computer and Information Science,University of Macau,Macau,China
2.DACC Laboratory,Zhuhai Institutes of Advanced Technology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,China
3.Department of Information Technology,Techno India College of Technology,India
4.Universidad Internacional de La Rioja,Logroño,Spain
5.University of Granada,Spain
First Author AffilicationUniversity of Macau
Corresponding Author AffilicationUniversity of Macau
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Simon James Fong,Gloria Li,Nilanjan Dey,et al. Composite Monte Carlo decision making under high uncertainty of novel coronavirus epidemic using hybridized deep learning and fuzzy rule induction[J]. Applied Soft Computing, 2020, 93, 106282.
APA Simon James Fong., Gloria Li., Nilanjan Dey., Rubén González Crespo., & Enrique Herrera-Viedma (2020). Composite Monte Carlo decision making under high uncertainty of novel coronavirus epidemic using hybridized deep learning and fuzzy rule induction. Applied Soft Computing, 93, 106282.
MLA Simon James Fong,et al."Composite Monte Carlo decision making under high uncertainty of novel coronavirus epidemic using hybridized deep learning and fuzzy rule induction".Applied Soft Computing 93(2020):106282.
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