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Predicting the Geographic Spread of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case Study from Brazil
Joao Alexandre Lobo Marques1; Francisco Nauber Bernardo Gois2; José Xavier-Neto3; Simon James Fong4
2021
Source PublicationPredictive Models for Decision Support in the COVID-19 Crisis
Author of SourceJoao Alexandre Lobo Marques, Francisco Nauber Bernardo Gois, José Xavier-Neto, Simon James Fong
Publication PlaceCham
PublisherSpringer
Pages89-98
Abstract

The support provided by geographic data and the corresponding processing tools can play an essential role to support decision-making process, especially for public healthcare during the current pandemic outbreak of the COVID-19. Geographic data collection may be challenging when is necessary to obtain precise latitude and longitude, for example. The current chapter presents a new tool for the geographic location prediction of new cases of COVID-19, considering the confirmed cases in the city of Fortaleza, capital of the State of Ceara, Brazil. The methodology is based on a sequential approach of four clustering algorithms: Agglomerative Clustering, DBSCAN, Mean Shift, and K-Means followed by a two-dimensional predictor based on the Kalman filter. The results are presented following a case study approach with different examples of implementation and the corresponding analysis of the results. The proposed technique could generally predict the trend of the infection geographically in Fortaleza and effectively supported the decision-making process of public healthcare analysts and managers from the Secretariat of Health of the State of Ceara.

DOI10.1007/978-3-030-61913-8_6
URLView the original
Language英語English
ISBN978-3-030-61913-8
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85097200187
Fulltext Access
Citation statistics
Document TypeBook chapter
CollectionDEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER AND INFORMATION SCIENCE
Corresponding AuthorJoao Alexandre Lobo Marques
Affiliation1.Laboratory of Neuroapplications,University of Saint Joseph,Macao
2.Machine Learning Department,Secretary of Health of the Government of the State of Ceara,Fortaleza,Brazil
3.Government Intelligence Cell,Secretary of Health of the Government of the State of Ceara,Fortaleza,Brazil
4.Department of Computer and Information Science,University of Macau,Macao
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Joao Alexandre Lobo Marques,Francisco Nauber Bernardo Gois,José Xavier-Neto,et al. Predicting the Geographic Spread of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case Study from Brazil[M]. Predictive Models for Decision Support in the COVID-19 Crisis, Cham:Springer, 2021, 89-98.
APA Joao Alexandre Lobo Marques., Francisco Nauber Bernardo Gois., José Xavier-Neto., & Simon James Fong (2021). Predicting the Geographic Spread of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case Study from Brazil. Predictive Models for Decision Support in the COVID-19 Crisis, 89-98.
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