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Theories, Methodologies and Applications of Probabilistic Forecasting for Power Systems with Renewable Energy Sources 新能源电力系统概率预测理论与方法及其应用
Wan,Can1; Song,Yonghua1,2
2021-01-10
Source PublicationDianli Xitong Zidonghua/Automation of Electric Power Systems
ISSN1000-1026
Volume45Issue:1Pages:2-16
Abstract

High penetration of renewable energy has become a prominent feature of the development of power systems in China. The uncertainty of intermittent renewable energy generation brings great challenges to the safe and economic operation of power systems. Accurate and reliable supply and demand forecasting is the basis of the analysis, operation, and control of the power systems with renewable energy sources. However, the forecasting error is difficult to be eliminated through the traditional deterministic forecasting. Probabilistic forecasting can effectively quantify the forecasting uncertainty and provide key information to the analysis, operation, and control of power systems. This paper systematically reviews the theories, methodologies and applications of probabilistic forecasting for the power systems with renewable energy sources. Firstly, the basic concepts of probabilistic forecasting for the power systems with renewable energy sources are introduced, including forecasting objects, time scales, probabilistic forecasting forms and performance evaluation indices. Secondly, the basic theories and methodologies of probabilistic forecasting for the power systems with renewable energy sources are reviewed. Then the multi-scenario applications of probabilistic forecasting in the power systems with renewable energy sources are summarized. Finally, the problems in the probabilistic forecasting of the power systems with renewable energy sources are summarized and the development trend is prospected.

KeywordArtificial Intelligence Power System Prediction Interval Probabilistic Forecasting Renewable Energy Uncertainty
DOI10.7500/AEPS20200811008
URLView the original
Indexed By核心期刊 ; EI ; CSCD
Language中文Chinese
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85099465559
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Document TypeJournal article
CollectionFaculty of Science and Technology
Corresponding AuthorWan,Can
Affiliation1.College of Electrical Engineering,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou,310027,China
2.State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City,University of Macau,Macau,Macao
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Wan,Can,Song,Yonghua. Theories, Methodologies and Applications of Probabilistic Forecasting for Power Systems with Renewable Energy Sources 新能源电力系统概率预测理论与方法及其应用[J]. Dianli Xitong Zidonghua/Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2021, 45(1), 2-16.
APA Wan,Can., & Song,Yonghua (2021). Theories, Methodologies and Applications of Probabilistic Forecasting for Power Systems with Renewable Energy Sources 新能源电力系统概率预测理论与方法及其应用. Dianli Xitong Zidonghua/Automation of Electric Power Systems, 45(1), 2-16.
MLA Wan,Can,et al."Theories, Methodologies and Applications of Probabilistic Forecasting for Power Systems with Renewable Energy Sources 新能源电力系统概率预测理论与方法及其应用".Dianli Xitong Zidonghua/Automation of Electric Power Systems 45.1(2021):2-16.
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