Residential College | false |
Status | 已發表Published |
Global trade flows and economic policy uncertainty | |
Tam, Pui Sun | |
2018 | |
Conference Name | APPLIED ECONOMICS |
Volume | 50 |
Issue | 34-35 |
Pages | 3718-3734 |
Conference Date | JUN, 2017 |
Conference Place | Brussels, BELGIUM |
Publication Place | 2-4 PARK SQUARE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON OX14 4RN, OXON, ENGLAND |
Publisher | ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD |
Abstract | This article investigates the impacts of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on global trade flows in gauging international trade developments. We employ a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) trade model, augmented with value-added bilateral trade linkages, that allows for quantifying the effects of economy-specific uncertainty shocks on exports and imports of individual economies. We find substantial spatial propagation in the temporal dynamics of international transmission of shocks amidst the manifestations of cross-border global value chains (GVCs) with China's accession into the WTO. We provide evidence for the significance of EPU of China and the United States, particularly the latter, in influencing global trade flows. Our results show that while the US impacts can largely be attributed to its indirect trade linkages with other economies, the impacts of China can be relegated more to its direct GVC linkages. The findings have implications on trade protectionist inclinations of the current-term US government and the ongoing efforts of China's policymakers in steering macroeconomic rebalancing for sustainable growth. |
Keyword | Economic Policy Uncertainty Global Vector Autoregression Trade Value-added |
DOI | 10.1080/00036846.2018.1436151 |
URL | View the original |
Indexed By | SSCI |
Language | 英語English |
WOS Research Area | Business & Economics |
WOS Subject | Economics |
WOS ID | WOS:000433012800007 |
The Source to Article | WOS |
Scopus ID | 2-s2.0-85041910909 |
Fulltext Access | |
Citation statistics | |
Document Type | Conference paper |
Collection | University of Macau |
Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Tam, Pui Sun. Global trade flows and economic policy uncertainty[C], 2-4 PARK SQUARE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON OX14 4RN, OXON, ENGLAND:ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD, 2018, 3718-3734. |
APA | Tam, Pui Sun.(2018). Global trade flows and economic policy uncertainty. , 50(34-35), 3718-3734. |
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