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Modeling VaR in Crude Oil Market: A Multi Scale Nonlinear Ensemble Approach Incorporating Wavelet Analysis and ANN
Kin Keung Lai1,2; Kaijian He1,2; Jerome Yen3
2007
Source PublicationLECTURE NOTES IN COMPUTER SCIENCE
ISSN0302-9743
Volume4487Pages:554-561
Abstract

Price fluctuations in the crude oil markets worldwide have attracted significant attentions from both, industries and academics, due to their profound impact on businesses and governments. Proper measurement and management of risks due to unexpected price movements in the markets has been crucial from both, operational and strategic perspectives. However, risk measurements from current approaches offer insufficient explanatory power and performance due to the complicated non-linear nature of risk evolutions. This paper adopts a VaR approach to measure risks and proposes multi-scale non-linear ensemble approaches to model the risk evolutions in WTI crude oil market. The proposed WDNEVaR follows a semi-parametric paradigm, incorporating both, wavelet analysis and artificial neural network techniques. Experiment results from empirical studies suggest that the proposed WDNEVaR is superior to traditional approaches. It provides VaR estimates of higher reliability and accuracy. It also brings significantly more flexibility during the modeling attempts.

KeywordArtificial Neural Network Nonlinear Ensemble Algorithm Value At Risk Wavelet Analysis
DOI10.1007/978-3-540-72584-8_73
Indexed ByCPCI-S
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaComputer Science
WOS SubjectComputer Science, Theory & Methods
WOS IDWOS:000247062800073
Scopus ID2-s2.0-37249034819
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Document TypeJournal article
CollectionFaculty of Business Administration
Faculty of Science and Technology
INSTITUTE OF COLLABORATIVE INNOVATION
Corresponding AuthorKin Keung Lai
Affiliation1.Department of Management Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Hong Kong
2.School of Business Administration, Hunan University, Changsha, Hunan, 410082, China
3.Department of Finance, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Kin Keung Lai,Kaijian He,Jerome Yen. Modeling VaR in Crude Oil Market: A Multi Scale Nonlinear Ensemble Approach Incorporating Wavelet Analysis and ANN[J]. LECTURE NOTES IN COMPUTER SCIENCE, 2007, 4487, 554-561.
APA Kin Keung Lai., Kaijian He., & Jerome Yen (2007). Modeling VaR in Crude Oil Market: A Multi Scale Nonlinear Ensemble Approach Incorporating Wavelet Analysis and ANN. LECTURE NOTES IN COMPUTER SCIENCE, 4487, 554-561.
MLA Kin Keung Lai,et al."Modeling VaR in Crude Oil Market: A Multi Scale Nonlinear Ensemble Approach Incorporating Wavelet Analysis and ANN".LECTURE NOTES IN COMPUTER SCIENCE 4487(2007):554-561.
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