The Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA) is a preferential trade agreement signed between Macao and China which opens the China market at zero tariffs for "Macao Origin" goods. It removes some restrictions to allow Macao service suppliers to establish in China. Besides, it introduces more friendly procedures to allow Chinese tourists to travel to Macao on an individual basis. Statistics suggest that the arrangement has brought about almost no contributions to the merchandising exports of Macao to China. This paper is then organized to empirically study Macao"s exports with an intention to identify the major determinants, with an attempt to estimate the efficiency level of Macao"s bilateral exports and the key contributors as well as to address the role of CEPA. The Stochastic Frontier Gravity model is applied and the regression result has proven our suspicious on the incapability of CEPA in boosting goods trade. When Macao-Hong Kong export is the most efficient flow, the efficiency score for Macao-China Export has been declining since the 90s and is just 21% in 2013. It implies that Macao"s export to China is far from its full potential.