Adopting Colombo and Morrison’s (1989) brand switching matrix (BSM) as a framework, we analyze hotel guest loyalty at the service category level via survey data collected from a random sample of returning visitors to Macau. Specifically we examined repeat visitors’ likelihood of staying at the same hotel service level and explorehow observed switching behavior is likely concomitantto structuralmacro-levelfactors, such as intensity of competition, entry of new operators and the lack of government policy and regulation over hotel substitutes, concurrently observed over the same period. The study thus delves into, on the one hand, aspects of hotel ‘class mobility’ or switching over time by individual consumers and, on the other, how changes in the competitive and structural environment affecting different hotel categories can reflect such switching. The analytical approach used in the study is unique in that it focuses on switching behavior, rather than intrinsic, attitudinal or psychosocial conceptions of loyalty. Results also provide a richer backdrop for understanding changes in individual hotel brand loyalty, which normally ignores the influence of category-level and large scale extrinsic factors.