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Forecasting the daily power output of a grid-connected photovoltaic system based on multivariate adaptive regression splines
Li,Yanting1; He,Yong1; Su,Yan2; Shu,Lianjie3
2016-10-15
Source PublicationApplied Energy
ISSN03062619
Volume180Pages:392-401
Abstract

Both linear and nonlinear models have been proposed for forecasting the power output of photovoltaic systems. Linear models are simple to implement but less flexible. Due to the stochastic nature of the power output of PV systems, nonlinear models tend to provide better forecast than linear models. Motivated by this, this paper suggests a fairly simple nonlinear regression model known as multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), as an alternative to forecasting of solar power output. The MARS model is a data-driven modeling approach without any assumption about the relationship between the power output and predictors. It maintains simplicity of the classical multiple linear regression (MLR) model while possessing the capability of handling nonlinearity. It is simpler in format than other nonlinear models such as ANN, k-nearest neighbors (KNN), classification and regression tree (CART), and support vector machine (SVM). The MARS model was applied on the daily output of a grid-connected 2.1 kW PV system to provide the 1-day-ahead mean daily forecast of the power output. The comparisons with a wide variety of forecast models show that the MARS model is able to provide reliable forecast performance.

KeywordMars Nwp Model Solar Power Output Weather Information
DOI10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.07.052
URLView the original
Indexed BySCIE
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaEnergy & Fuels ; Engineering
WOS SubjectEnergy & Fuels ; Engineering, Chemical
WOS IDWOS:000383291900032
Scopus ID2-s2.0-84982717772
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Citation statistics
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionDEPARTMENT OF ELECTROMECHANICAL ENGINEERING
DEPARTMENT OF ACCOUNTING AND INFORMATION MANAGEMENT
Corresponding AuthorShu,Lianjie
Affiliation1.Department of Industrial Engineering and Logistics Management,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,,ShangHai,China
2.Department of Electromechanical Engineering,University of Macau,,Taipa,Macao
3.Faculty of Business Administration,University of Macau,,Taipa,Macao
Corresponding Author AffilicationFaculty of Business Administration
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Li,Yanting,He,Yong,Su,Yan,et al. Forecasting the daily power output of a grid-connected photovoltaic system based on multivariate adaptive regression splines[J]. Applied Energy, 2016, 180, 392-401.
APA Li,Yanting., He,Yong., Su,Yan., & Shu,Lianjie (2016). Forecasting the daily power output of a grid-connected photovoltaic system based on multivariate adaptive regression splines. Applied Energy, 180, 392-401.
MLA Li,Yanting,et al."Forecasting the daily power output of a grid-connected photovoltaic system based on multivariate adaptive regression splines".Applied Energy 180(2016):392-401.
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