Residential College | false |
Status | 已發表Published |
Forecasting the daily power output of a grid-connected photovoltaic system based on multivariate adaptive regression splines | |
Li,Yanting1; He,Yong1; Su,Yan2; Shu,Lianjie3 | |
2016-10-15 | |
Source Publication | Applied Energy |
ISSN | 03062619 |
Volume | 180Pages:392-401 |
Abstract | Both linear and nonlinear models have been proposed for forecasting the power output of photovoltaic systems. Linear models are simple to implement but less flexible. Due to the stochastic nature of the power output of PV systems, nonlinear models tend to provide better forecast than linear models. Motivated by this, this paper suggests a fairly simple nonlinear regression model known as multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), as an alternative to forecasting of solar power output. The MARS model is a data-driven modeling approach without any assumption about the relationship between the power output and predictors. It maintains simplicity of the classical multiple linear regression (MLR) model while possessing the capability of handling nonlinearity. It is simpler in format than other nonlinear models such as ANN, k-nearest neighbors (KNN), classification and regression tree (CART), and support vector machine (SVM). The MARS model was applied on the daily output of a grid-connected 2.1 kW PV system to provide the 1-day-ahead mean daily forecast of the power output. The comparisons with a wide variety of forecast models show that the MARS model is able to provide reliable forecast performance. |
Keyword | Mars Nwp Model Solar Power Output Weather Information |
DOI | 10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.07.052 |
URL | View the original |
Indexed By | SCIE |
Language | 英語English |
WOS Research Area | Energy & Fuels ; Engineering |
WOS Subject | Energy & Fuels ; Engineering, Chemical |
WOS ID | WOS:000383291900032 |
Scopus ID | 2-s2.0-84982717772 |
Fulltext Access | |
Citation statistics | |
Document Type | Journal article |
Collection | DEPARTMENT OF ELECTROMECHANICAL ENGINEERING DEPARTMENT OF ACCOUNTING AND INFORMATION MANAGEMENT |
Corresponding Author | Shu,Lianjie |
Affiliation | 1.Department of Industrial Engineering and Logistics Management,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,,ShangHai,China 2.Department of Electromechanical Engineering,University of Macau,,Taipa,Macao 3.Faculty of Business Administration,University of Macau,,Taipa,Macao |
Corresponding Author Affilication | Faculty of Business Administration |
Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Li,Yanting,He,Yong,Su,Yan,et al. Forecasting the daily power output of a grid-connected photovoltaic system based on multivariate adaptive regression splines[J]. Applied Energy, 2016, 180, 392-401. |
APA | Li,Yanting., He,Yong., Su,Yan., & Shu,Lianjie (2016). Forecasting the daily power output of a grid-connected photovoltaic system based on multivariate adaptive regression splines. Applied Energy, 180, 392-401. |
MLA | Li,Yanting,et al."Forecasting the daily power output of a grid-connected photovoltaic system based on multivariate adaptive regression splines".Applied Energy 180(2016):392-401. |
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