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Hedging Opportunities and Crises against Pyongyang's Hereditary Succession: A Chinese Perspective
You Ji
2011-06-30
Source PublicationInternational Journal of Korean Unification Studies
ISSN1229-6902
Volume20Issue:1Pages:55-87
Abstract

Beijing passively supports Kim Jong-il’s succession plan. This support has been structured into its DPRK policy centered on the principles of crisis aversion, even though it realizes the high costs of this policy: huge economic aid to an unpredictable neighbor and the negative regional response. This status quo-based policy symbolizes not only Beijing’s lingering “buffer zone” mentality but also its difficulty in finding any feasible substitute. Therefore, Beijing is not in a position to visibly alter its DPRK policy any time soon. Yet China may have revised the bottom line of its policy vis-à-vis the North in the wake of the 2010 adventurism that dragged China into confrontation against its will. This would be a hedging strategy, setting pre-determined plans to preempt any precarious situation on the peninsula and cooperating with regional countries regarding sudden developments in Pyongyang. At the same time it would hedge against the possibility of a war for regime change on the ground. Beijing’s general view of the prospects for the succession is relatively optimistic, since Kim Jong-il is making detailed plans for the transfer of power and he may still have a number of years to live, granting the extra time which is crucial for consolidating the heir’s power.

KeywordKim Jong-il Kim Jong-un Succession Chinese Dprk Policy U.s.-rok Alliance
URLView the original
Language英語English
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionDEPARTMENT OF GOVERNMENT AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION
AffiliationUniversity of Macau,China
First Author AffilicationUniversity of Macau
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
You Ji. Hedging Opportunities and Crises against Pyongyang's Hereditary Succession: A Chinese Perspective[J]. International Journal of Korean Unification Studies, 2011, 20(1), 55-87.
APA You Ji.(2011). Hedging Opportunities and Crises against Pyongyang's Hereditary Succession: A Chinese Perspective. International Journal of Korean Unification Studies, 20(1), 55-87.
MLA You Ji."Hedging Opportunities and Crises against Pyongyang's Hereditary Succession: A Chinese Perspective".International Journal of Korean Unification Studies 20.1(2011):55-87.
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