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Prediction of Daily PV Power via Time Series Modelling
Su, Yan2; Li, Yan-ting1; Shu, Lian-jie3; Ng, Sio-Kei2
2014
Conference NameInternational Conference on Energy and Power Engineering (EPE)
Source PublicationINTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON ENERGY AND POWER ENGINEERING (EPE 2014)
Pages253-257
Conference DateAPR 26-27, 2014
Conference PlaceHong Kong, PEOPLES R CHINA
PublisherDESTECH PUBLICATIONS, INC, 439 DUKE STREET, LANCASTER, PA 17602-4967 USA
Abstract

This paper develops new real time prediction models for output power and energy efficiency of solar photovoltaic(PV) systemsThese models were validated using measured data of a grid-connected solar PV system in MacauBoth yearly and monthly averaged time frames are consideredIt is shown that the prediction model for the yearly/monthly average of the minutely output power fits the measured data very well with high value of R squareThe online prediction model for system efficiency is based on the ratio of the predicted output power to the predicted solar irradianceThis ratio model is shown to be able to fit the intermediate phase very well but not accurate for the growth and decay phases where the system efficiency is near zeroHowever, it can still serve as a useful purpose for practitioners as most PV systems work in the most efficient manner over this periodIt is shown that the maximum monthly average minutely efficiency varies over a small range of 10.81%-12.63% in different months with slightly higher efficiency in winter months.

KeywordOutput Power Pv System Solar Irradiance
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaEnergy & Fuels ; Materials Science
WOS SubjectEnergy & Fuels ; Materials Science, Multidisciplinary
WOS IDWOS:000351919800049
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Citation statistics
Document TypeConference paper
CollectionFaculty of Business Administration
DEPARTMENT OF ACCOUNTING AND INFORMATION MANAGEMENT
Affiliation1.Shanghai Jiao Tong Univ, Dept Ind Engn & Logist Management, Shanghai 200030, Peoples R China
2.Univ Macau, Dept Electromech Engn, Macau, Peoples R China
3.Univ Macau, Fac Business, Macau, Peoples R China
First Author AffilicationUniversity of Macau
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Su, Yan,Li, Yan-ting,Shu, Lian-jie,et al. Prediction of Daily PV Power via Time Series Modelling[C]:DESTECH PUBLICATIONS, INC, 439 DUKE STREET, LANCASTER, PA 17602-4967 USA, 2014, 253-257.
APA Su, Yan., Li, Yan-ting., Shu, Lian-jie., & Ng, Sio-Kei (2014). Prediction of Daily PV Power via Time Series Modelling. INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON ENERGY AND POWER ENGINEERING (EPE 2014), 253-257.
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