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Improving minimum-variance portfolio through shrinkage of large covariance matrices
Shi, Fangquan1; Shu, Lianjie2; He, Fangyi3; Huang, Wenpo4
2025-03-01
Source PublicationEconomic Modelling
ABS Journal Level2
ISSN0264-9993
Volume144Pages:106981
Abstract

The global minimum-variance (GMV) portfolio derived from the sample covariance matrix often performs poorly due to large estimation errors. Linear shrinkage covariance estimators have been extensively studied to address this issue. This study proposes an optimal shrinkage intensity selection for the linear shrinkage estimator family using cross-validated negative log-likelihood function minimization. Moreover, we provide theoretical insights into the selection process. Empirical studies have shown that the proposed approach produces more stable covariance matrix estimators than the Frobenius loss minimization method, resulting in improved GMV portfolios. Furthermore, linear shrinkage estimators that use a diagonal matrix or a matrix based on a one-factor model as the target matrix generally achieve the best performance. They also outperform nonlinear shrinkage covariance estimators, especially with a large number of assets. This superiority is evident in terms of out-of-sample variance, turnover, and the Sharpe ratio.

KeywordPortfolio Optimization Covariance Matrix Linear Shrinkage High Dimension
DOI10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106981
URLView the original
Indexed BySSCI
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaBusiness & Economics
WOS SubjectEconomics
WOS IDWOS:001400200600001
PublisherELSEVIER, RADARWEG 29, 1043 NX AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85213881346
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Citation statistics
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionFaculty of Business Administration
Corresponding AuthorHuang, Wenpo
Affiliation1.School of Finance, Nanjing Audit University, Jiangsu, China
2.Faculty of Business Administration, University of Macau, Macao
3.School of Finance, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Sichuan, China
4.Experimental Center of Data Science and Intelligent Decision, Hangzhou Dianzi University, Zhejiang, China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Shi, Fangquan,Shu, Lianjie,He, Fangyi,et al. Improving minimum-variance portfolio through shrinkage of large covariance matrices[J]. Economic Modelling, 2025, 144, 106981.
APA Shi, Fangquan., Shu, Lianjie., He, Fangyi., & Huang, Wenpo (2025). Improving minimum-variance portfolio through shrinkage of large covariance matrices. Economic Modelling, 144, 106981.
MLA Shi, Fangquan,et al."Improving minimum-variance portfolio through shrinkage of large covariance matrices".Economic Modelling 144(2025):106981.
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