Background Pain resilience and regional gray matter volume (rGMV) are established correlates of adaptation to chronic pain within cross-sectional studies. Extending such work, this prospective cohort study tested the status of baseline pain resilience dimension scores and rGMV as risk factors for subsequent exacerbations in chronic pain disability and intensity.

Methods 142 adults with chronic musculoskeletal pain completed an initial assessment comprising a structural magnetic resonance imaging scan and self-report measures of cognitive/affective positivity and behavioral perseverance pain resilience dimensions, disability, pain intensity, and demographics. Disability and pain intensity were outcomes re-assessed at a 6-month follow-up. The impact of pain resilience dimension scores and identified rGMV sites on follow-up outcomes was examined after controlling for other baseline correlates of outcomes. Mediating effects of identified rGMV sites on pain resilience dimension-follow-up outcome relations were also evaluated.

Results Aside from the significant multivariate effect of lower behavioral perseverance and cognitive/affective positivity scores, augmented left precuneus, temporal pole, superior temporal gyrus (STG), and precentral gyrus rGMV combined to predict higher follow-up disability levels, independent of covariates. Higher left fusiform gyrus rGMV levels predicted follow-up exacerbations in pain intensity, but pain resilience dimension scores did not. Finally, left precuneus and left temporal pole STG rGMV partially mediated cognitive/affective positivity-follow-up disability relations.

Conclusions Findings underscore deficits in pain resilience and increased rGMV as potential risk factors for poorer subsequent outcomes of chronic musculoskeletal pain and provide foundations for further prospective extensions as well as targeted intervention research.