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A new heteroskedasticity-robust test for explosive bubbles
Harvey, David I.1; Leybourne, Stephen J.1; Taylor, A. M.Robert2; Zu, Yang3
2024-10-17
Source PublicationJournal of Time Series Analysis
ABS Journal Level3
ISSN0143-9782
Other Abstract

We propose a new class of modified regression-based tests for detecting asset price bubbles designed to be robust to the presenceof general forms of both conditional and unconditional heteroskedasticity in the price series. This modification, based on theapproach developed in Beare (2018) in the context of conventional unit root testing, is achieved by purging the impact ofunconditional heteroskedasticity from the data using a kernel estimate of volatility before the application of the bubble detectionmethods proposed in Phillips, Shi and Yu (2015) (PSY). The modified statistic is shown to achieve the same limiting nulldistribution as the corresponding (heteroskedasticity-uncorrected) statistic from PSY would obtain under homoskedasticity,such that the usual critical values provided in PSY may still be used. Versions of the test based on regressions including eitherno intercept or a (redundant) intercept are considered. Representations for asymptotic local power against a single bubble modelare also derived. Monte Carlo simulation results highlight that neither one of these tests dominates the other across differentbubble locations and magnitudes, and across different models of time-varying volatility. Accordingly, we also propose a testbased on a union of rejections between the with- and without-intercept variants of the modified PSY test. The union procedureis shown to perform almost as well as the better of the constituent tests for a given DGP, and also performs very well comparedto existing heteroskedasticity-robust tests across a large range of simulation DGPs.

KeywordRational Bubble Explosive Autoregression Time-varying Volatility Kernel Smoothing Right-tailed Unit Root Testing Union Of Rejections
DOI10.1111/jtsa.12784
URLView the original
Indexed BySCIE
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaMathematics
WOS SubjectMathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications ; Statistics & Probability
WOS IDWOS:001333210300001
PublisherWILEY111 RIVER ST, HOBOKEN 07030-5774, NJ
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85206812097
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Citation statistics
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionUniversity of Macau
Corresponding AuthorTaylor, A. M.Robert
Affiliation1.School of Economics, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK
2.Essex Business School, University of Essex, Colchester, UK
3.Department of Economics, University of Macau, Macau, China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Harvey, David I.,Leybourne, Stephen J.,Taylor, A. M.Robert,et al. A new heteroskedasticity-robust test for explosive bubbles[J]. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 2024.
APA Harvey, David I.., Leybourne, Stephen J.., Taylor, A. M.Robert., & Zu, Yang (2024). A new heteroskedasticity-robust test for explosive bubbles. Journal of Time Series Analysis.
MLA Harvey, David I.,et al."A new heteroskedasticity-robust test for explosive bubbles".Journal of Time Series Analysis (2024).
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