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Trends and Periodicities of Tropical Cyclone Frequencies and the Correlations with Ocean Drivers
Li, Guoyou1; Shi, Huabin1; He, Zhiguo2
2024-09-26
Source PublicationJournal of Marine Science and Engineering
ISSN2077-1312
Volume12Issue:10Pages:1707
Abstract

This study presents a comprehensive analysis on the variations in the tropical cyclone (TC) frequencies during 1980–2021, including the linear trends, periodicities, and their variabilities on both global and basin-wise scales. An increasing trend in the annual number of global TCs is identified, with a significant rising trend in the numbers of tropical storms (maximum sustained wind 35 kts ≤ Umax < 64 kts) and intense typhoons (Umax ≥ 96 kts) and a deceasing trend for weak typhoons (64 kts ≤ Umax < 96 kts). There is no statistically significant trend shown in the global Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). On a regional scale, the Western North Pacific (WNP) and Eastern North Pacific (ENP) are the regions of the first- and second-largest numbers of TCs, respectively, while the increased TC activity in the North Atlantic (NA) contributes the most to the global increase in TCs. It is revealed in the wavelet transformation for periodicity analysis that the variations in the annual number of TCs with different intensities mostly show an inter-annual period of 3–7 years and an inter-decadal one of 10–13 years. The inter-annual and inter-decadal periods are consistent with those in the ENSO-related ocean drivers (via the Niño 3.4 index), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) index. The inter-decadal variation in 10–13 years is also observed in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. The Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) index and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) index, on the other hand, present the same inter-annual period of 7–10 years as that in the frequencies of all the named TCs in the NA. Further, the correlations between TC frequencies and ocean drivers are also quantified using the Pearson correlation coefficient. These findings contribute to an enhanced understanding of TC activity, thereby facilitating efforts to predict particular TC activity and mitigate the inflicted damage. 

KeywordTropical Cyclone Long-term Trend Periodicity Ocean Variability Ocean Hazard
DOI10.3390/jmse12101707
URLView the original
Indexed BySCIE
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaEngineering ; Oceanography
WOS SubjectEngineering, Marine ; Engineering, Ocean ; Oceanography
WOS IDWOS:001342859400001
PublisherMDPI, ST ALBAN-ANLAGE 66, CH-4052 BASEL, SWITZERLAND
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85207338750
Fulltext Access
Citation statistics
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionTHE STATE KEY LABORATORY OF INTERNET OF THINGS FOR SMART CITY (UNIVERSITY OF MACAU)
Corresponding AuthorShi, Huabin
Affiliation1.State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City, University of Macau, Macao & Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, 999078, China
2.Ocean College, Zhejiang University, Zhoushan, 316000, China
First Author AffilicationUniversity of Macau
Corresponding Author AffilicationUniversity of Macau
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Li, Guoyou,Shi, Huabin,He, Zhiguo. Trends and Periodicities of Tropical Cyclone Frequencies and the Correlations with Ocean Drivers[J]. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 2024, 12(10), 1707.
APA Li, Guoyou., Shi, Huabin., & He, Zhiguo (2024). Trends and Periodicities of Tropical Cyclone Frequencies and the Correlations with Ocean Drivers. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 12(10), 1707.
MLA Li, Guoyou,et al."Trends and Periodicities of Tropical Cyclone Frequencies and the Correlations with Ocean Drivers".Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 12.10(2024):1707.
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