Residential College | false |
Status | 已發表Published |
Improving Model Generalization for Short-Term Customer Load Forecasting with Causal Inference | |
Zhenyi Wang1; Hongcai Zhang1; Ruixiong Yang2; Yong Chen2 | |
2024-08-30 | |
Source Publication | IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid |
ISSN | 1949-3061 |
Abstract | Short-term customer load forecasting is vital for the normal operation of power systems. Unfortunately, conventional machine learning-based forecasting methods are susceptible to generalization issues (e.g., the customer heterogeneity and distribution drift of load data), manifested in model performance degradation. In recent years, some studies have employed the advanced deep learning technology, such as online learning, to overcome the aforesaid problems. However, these methods can only alleviate the adverse impacts of generalization problems on model performance, because they are inherently built on unstable relationships (i.e., correlations). In this paper, we propose a novel causal inference-based method to improve the generalization for short-term customer load forecasting models. Specifically, we first investigate the causal relations between input features and the output in existing methods, and introduce the load characteristics as an extra model input to enhance the causality. Then, we closely inspect the causality in models by using the causal graph to distinguish the confounder, followed by employing the causal intervention with do-calculus to eliminate the spurious correlations caused by the confounder. Moreover, we propose a novel load forecasting framework with the load characteristic extraction, characteristic pool approximation and characteristic-injected model to realize the causal intervention in an efficient and fidelity way. Finally, the effectiveness and superiority of our proposed method are validated on a public dataset. |
DOI | 10.1109/TSG.2024.3452490 |
URL | View the original |
Language | 英語English |
Publisher | Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc. |
Scopus ID | 2-s2.0-85202768823 |
Fulltext Access | |
Citation statistics | |
Document Type | Journal article |
Collection | THE STATE KEY LABORATORY OF INTERNET OF THINGS FOR SMART CITY (UNIVERSITY OF MACAU) |
Corresponding Author | Hongcai Zhang |
Affiliation | 1.State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City, University of Macau, Macao, China 2.Zhuhai Power Supply Bureau, Guangdong Power Grid Co., Ltd, Zhuhai, Guangdong, China |
First Author Affilication | University of Macau |
Corresponding Author Affilication | University of Macau |
Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Zhenyi Wang,Hongcai Zhang,Ruixiong Yang,et al. Improving Model Generalization for Short-Term Customer Load Forecasting with Causal Inference[J]. IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, 2024. |
APA | Zhenyi Wang., Hongcai Zhang., Ruixiong Yang., & Yong Chen (2024). Improving Model Generalization for Short-Term Customer Load Forecasting with Causal Inference. IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid. |
MLA | Zhenyi Wang,et al."Improving Model Generalization for Short-Term Customer Load Forecasting with Causal Inference".IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid (2024). |
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