This research studies the spatial dynamics of tourism development in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, a cross-border region under a multi-level administrative structure in China. Specifically, it examines tourism spatial spillovers and convergence dynamics across Bay Area cities to assess the extent to which cities’ heterogeneous tourism development trajectories promote or inhibit the deepening of regional tourism cooperation. Results from spatial econometric modeling and nonparametric distribution dynamics reveal positive tourism spatial spillovers and convergence with stratification. Furthermore, certain factors, such as cities’ economic development, basic infrastructure, and tourism capacity, are key drivers of tourism development. Other factors, including cities’ tourism resources and transportation networks, need to be addressed for tourism expansion. These findings on the spatial landscape and determinants of cross-border tourism in the Bay Area provide useful insights into formulating regional policies on collective tourism development.

摘要

粤港澳大湾区是一个处于多级行政管理结构下的跨境区域，本文旨在研究其旅游发展之空间动态; 主要通过考察湾区城市之间的旅游空间溢出和收敛动态，评估各城市旅游异质性发展轨迹对深化区域旅游合作的促进或抑制程度。空间计量模型与非参数分布动态方法的研究结果显示，湾区城市之间存在正向的旅游空间溢出和分层的旅游收敛; 而且城市经济发展、基础建设、旅游接待力等为湾区旅游发展的关键驱动因素，城市旅游资源及交通网络等因素则亟待改善以促进旅游业的扩张。本文针对湾区跨境旅游的空间状态及影响因素所得的分析结果，为制定区域旅游协同发展政策提供有益的依据。