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A hybrid surrogate model for real-time coastal urban flood prediction: An application to Macao
Xu, Lishu1,2; Gao, Liang1,2
2024-10
Source PublicationJournal of Hydrology
ISSN0022-1694
Volume642Pages:131863
Abstract

Tropical cyclones could cause co-occurrences of storm tides and rainfall and, therefore, induce flooding hazards, posing high risks to coastal cities. Accurate and timely prediction of flood hazards in time–space domain is essential for flood risk management. In this study, a hybrid surrogate model is proposed for real-time flooding prediction by considering the compound effects of storm tides, rainfall, and drainage outflows. The hybrid surrogate model combines a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network for predicting drainage outflows with a one-dimensional convolutional neural network (1D CNN) for predicting water depths. The model is tested using performance metrics, and the simulation results agree well with the historical measurements. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis of the drainage outflows using the modified Morris screening method reveals the importance of considering drainage systems in flood modelling, particularly when rainfall return periods are relatively small. The sensitivity indices vary over the computation domain in terms of different driving factors, with positive values corresponding to rainfall-dominated area while negative values corresponding to storm tide-dominated area. The computation cost of the model is quite low, and the fast prediction speed could provide a sound basis for early warning and real-time flood management. The proposed hybrid surrogate model offers a promising function for rapid and accurate flood inundation prediction in coastal cities, enabling more effective flood risk management and emergency response planning.

KeywordCoastal Urban Flooding Compound Flood Events Flood Inundation Modelling Hybrid Surrogate Modelling Machine Learning Real-time Flood Forecasting Urban Drainage
DOI10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131863
URLView the original
Indexed BySCIE
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaEngineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
WOS SubjectEngineering, Civil ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources
WOS IDWOS:001301616200001
PublisherELSEVIER, RADARWEG 29, 1043 NX AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85201783170
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Citation statistics
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionFaculty of Science and Technology
THE STATE KEY LABORATORY OF INTERNET OF THINGS FOR SMART CITY (UNIVERSITY OF MACAU)
DEPARTMENT OF OCEAN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Corresponding AuthorGao, Liang
Affiliation1.State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City and Department of Ocean Science and Technology, University of Macau, Macao
2.Center for Ocean Research in Hong Kong and Macao (CORE), Hong Kong
First Author AffilicationUniversity of Macau
Corresponding Author AffilicationUniversity of Macau
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Xu, Lishu,Gao, Liang. A hybrid surrogate model for real-time coastal urban flood prediction: An application to Macao[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2024, 642, 131863.
APA Xu, Lishu., & Gao, Liang (2024). A hybrid surrogate model for real-time coastal urban flood prediction: An application to Macao. Journal of Hydrology, 642, 131863.
MLA Xu, Lishu,et al."A hybrid surrogate model for real-time coastal urban flood prediction: An application to Macao".Journal of Hydrology 642(2024):131863.
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