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A novel forecasting method based on multi-order fuzzy time series and technical analysis
Furong Ye1; Liming Zhang2; Defu Zhang1; Hamido Fujita3; Zhiguo Gong2
2016-05-30
Source PublicationInformation Sciences
ISSN0020-0255
Volume367-368Pages:41-57
Abstract

Financial trading is one of the most common risk investment actions in the modern economic environment because financial market systems are complex non-linear dynamic systems. It is a challenge to develop the inherent rules using the traditional time series prediction technique. In this paper, we proposed a new forecasting method based on multi-order fuzzy time series, technical analysis, and a genetic algorithm. Multi-order fuzzy time series (first-order, second-order and third-order) are applied in the proposed algorithm, and to improve the performance, genetic algorithm is used to find a good domain partition. Technical analysis such as the Rate of Change (ROC), Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD), and Stochastic Oscillator (KDJ) are introduced to construct multi-variable fuzzy time series, and exponential smoothing is used to eliminate noise in the time series. In addition to the root mean square error and mean square error, the directional accuracy rate (DAR) is also used in our empirical studies. We apply the proposed method to forecast five well-known stock indexes and the NTD/USD exchange rates. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms other existing models based on fuzzy time series.

KeywordFinancial Forecasting Fuzzy Time Series Genetic Algorithm Technical Analysis
DOI10.1016/j.ins.2016.05.038
URLView the original
Indexed BySCIE
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaComputer Science
WOS SubjectComputer Science, Information Systems
WOS IDWOS:000382794400004
Scopus ID2-s2.0-84974536563
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Document TypeJournal article
CollectionDEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER AND INFORMATION SCIENCE
Corresponding AuthorDefu Zhang
Affiliation1.Department of Computer Science, Xiamen University, Xiamen, 361005, China
2.Department of Computer and Information Science, University of Macau, Macau, China
3.Faculty of Software and Information Science, Iwate Prefectural University, Iwate, Japan
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Furong Ye,Liming Zhang,Defu Zhang,et al. A novel forecasting method based on multi-order fuzzy time series and technical analysis[J]. Information Sciences, 2016, 367-368, 41-57.
APA Furong Ye., Liming Zhang., Defu Zhang., Hamido Fujita., & Zhiguo Gong (2016). A novel forecasting method based on multi-order fuzzy time series and technical analysis. Information Sciences, 367-368, 41-57.
MLA Furong Ye,et al."A novel forecasting method based on multi-order fuzzy time series and technical analysis".Information Sciences 367-368(2016):41-57.
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