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Development and evaluation of a risk prediction model for diabetes mellitus type 2 patients with vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy
Gong, Di1,2; Fang, Lyujie2; Cai, Yixian2; Chong, Ieng3; Guo, Junhong4; Yan, Zhichao4; Shen, Xiaoli4; Yang, Weihua4; Wang, Jiantao4
2023-08-24
Source PublicationFrontiers in Endocrinology
ISSN1664-2392
Volume14Pages:1244601
Abstract

Objective: This study aims to develop and evaluate a non-imaging clinical data-based nomogram for predicting the risk of vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy (VTDR) in diabetes mellitus type 2 (T2DM) patients. Methods: Based on the baseline data of the Guangdong Shaoguan Diabetes Cohort Study conducted by the Zhongshan Ophthalmic Center (ZOC) in 2019, 2294 complete data of T2DM patients were randomly divided into a training set (n=1605) and a testing set (n=689). Independent risk factors were selected through univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis on the training dataset, and a nomogram was constructed for predicting the risk of VTDR in T2DM patients. The model was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and area under the curve (AUC) in the training and testing datasets to assess discrimination, and Hosmer-Lemeshow test and calibration curves to assess calibration. Results: The results of the multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that Age (OR = 0.954, 95% CI: 0.940-0.969, p = 0.000), BMI (OR = 0.942, 95% CI: 0.902-0.984, p = 0.007), systolic blood pressure (SBP) (OR =1.014, 95% CI: 1.007-1.022, p = 0.000), diabetes duration (10-15y: OR =3.126, 95% CI: 2.087-4.682, p = 0.000; >15y: OR =3.750, 95% CI: 2.362-5.954, p = 0.000), and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1C) (OR = 1.325, 95% CI: 1.221-1.438, p = 0.000) were independent risk factors for T2DM patients with VTDR. A nomogram was constructed using these variables. The model discrimination results showed an AUC of 0.7193 for the training set and 0.6897 for the testing set. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test results showed a high consistency between the predicted and observed probabilities for both the training set (Chi-square=2.2029, P=0.9742) and the testing set (Chi-square=7.6628, P=0.4671). Conclusion: The introduction of Age, BMI, SBP, Duration, and HbA1C as variables helps to stratify the risk of T2DM patients with VTDR.

KeywordDiabetes Mellitus Type 2 Diabetic Retinopathy Prediction Model Risk Factors Vision-threatening Diabetic Retinopathy
DOI10.3389/fendo.2023.1244601
URLView the original
Indexed BySCIE
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaEndocrinology & Metabolism
WOS SubjectEndocrinology & Metabolism
WOS IDWOS:001063363500001
PublisherFRONTIERS MEDIA SA, AVENUE DU TRIBUNAL FEDERAL 34, LAUSANNE CH-1015, SWITZERLAND
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85170202649
Fulltext Access
Citation statistics
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionUniversity of Macau
Corresponding AuthorYang, Weihua; Wang, Jiantao
Affiliation1.Shenzhen Eye Hospital, Jinan University, Shenzhen, Guangdong, China
2.The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, Jinan University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
3.Macau University Hospital, Macao
4.Shenzhen Eye Hospital, Jinan University, Shenzhen Eye Institute, Shenzhen, Guangdong, China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Gong, Di,Fang, Lyujie,Cai, Yixian,et al. Development and evaluation of a risk prediction model for diabetes mellitus type 2 patients with vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy[J]. Frontiers in Endocrinology, 2023, 14, 1244601.
APA Gong, Di., Fang, Lyujie., Cai, Yixian., Chong, Ieng., Guo, Junhong., Yan, Zhichao., Shen, Xiaoli., Yang, Weihua., & Wang, Jiantao (2023). Development and evaluation of a risk prediction model for diabetes mellitus type 2 patients with vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy. Frontiers in Endocrinology, 14, 1244601.
MLA Gong, Di,et al."Development and evaluation of a risk prediction model for diabetes mellitus type 2 patients with vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy".Frontiers in Endocrinology 14(2023):1244601.
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