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Synchronous Prediction of Asset Prices’ Multivariate Time Series Based on Multi-task Learning and Data Augmentation
Li, Jiahao; Zhao, Qinghua; Fong, Simon; Yen, Jerome
2023
Conference Name19th International Conference on Advanced Data Mining and Applications, ADMA 2023
Source PublicationLecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics)
Volume14180 LNAI
Pages536-551
Conference Date21 August 2023through 23 August 2023
Conference PlaceShenyang
PublisherSpringer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH
Abstract

Multi-task Learning (MTL) makes a positive difference in many fields by improving the prediction effects of correlated tasks among multiple related data sets. Some financial Multivariate Time Series (MTS) also have a high correlation, but applications like price synchronous prediction based on MTL still lack enough attention from researchers. The future values of a certain price are not only related to its own historical values, but also related to other correlated price sequences, and this is a suitable condition for applying the MTL model. This paper constructs an MTL model for synchronous learning and predicting price time series based on the Sequence-to-Sequence (Seq2Seq) model. To obtain enough data for modeling, the Weighted Soft-dtw Barycentric Averaging (wDBA) is used as the Data Augmentation (DA) method to generate more time series data for each Forex pair based on its original OHLC bid quotes. On the testing of 8 Forex pairs’ minute-level quote data from 2020 to 2022, our model, Seq2Seq with DA, outperforms baseline models including the single Long Short-term Memory (LSTM) and Seq2Seq without DA. During the experiment, to provide a comprehensive evaluation on such a long time sequence, more than 1 million minutes, we design the Chronological Randomly-sampling Walk-forward (CRSWF) Validation for a quick evaluation. As a result, when the DA degree is 125%, on the MAE, NMAE, RMSE, and NRMSE, our model respectively reduces by 95.23%, 97.24%, 94.07%, and 95.99% than LSTM, and also reduces by 7.87%, 4.84%, 6.05%, and 1.71% than the Seq2Seq without DA.

KeywordData Augmentation Forex Forecast Multi-task Learning Multivariate Time Series Analysis Synchronous Prediction
DOI10.1007/978-3-031-46677-9_37
URLView the original
Language英語English
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85177465047
Fulltext Access
Citation statistics
Document TypeConference paper
CollectionFaculty of Science and Technology
AffiliationFaculty of Science and Technology, University of Macau, Macao
First Author AffilicationFaculty of Science and Technology
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Li, Jiahao,Zhao, Qinghua,Fong, Simon,et al. Synchronous Prediction of Asset Prices’ Multivariate Time Series Based on Multi-task Learning and Data Augmentation[C]:Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2023, 536-551.
APA Li, Jiahao., Zhao, Qinghua., Fong, Simon., & Yen, Jerome (2023). Synchronous Prediction of Asset Prices’ Multivariate Time Series Based on Multi-task Learning and Data Augmentation. Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics), 14180 LNAI, 536-551.
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