UM  > Faculty of Health Sciences  > DEPARTMENT OF BIOMEDICAL SCIENCES
Residential Collegefalse
Status已發表Published
Empirical Quantification of Predictive Uncertainty Due to Model Discrepancy by Training with an Ensemble of Experimental Designs: An Application to Ion Channel Kinetics
Shuttleworth, Joseph G.1; Lei, Chon Lok2,3; Whittaker, Dominic G.1,4; Windley, Monique J.5,6; Hill, Adam P.5,6; Preston, Simon P.1; Mirams, Gary R.1
2024
Source PublicationBulletin of Mathematical Biology
ISSN0092-8240
Volume86Issue:1Pages:2
Abstract

When using mathematical models to make quantitative predictions for clinical or industrial use, it is important that predictions come with a reliable estimate of their accuracy (uncertainty quantification). Because models of complex biological systems are always large simplifications, model discrepancy arises—models fail to perfectly recapitulate the true data generating process. This presents a particular challenge for making accurate predictions, and especially for accurately quantifying uncertainty in these predictions. Experimentalists and modellers must choose which experimental procedures (protocols) are used to produce data used to train models. We propose to characterise uncertainty owing to model discrepancy with an ensemble of parameter sets, each of which results from training to data from a different protocol. The variability in predictions from this ensemble provides an empirical estimate of predictive uncertainty owing to model discrepancy, even for unseen protocols. We use the example of electrophysiology experiments that investigate the properties of hERG potassium channels. Here, ‘information-rich’ protocols allow mathematical models to be trained using numerous short experiments performed on the same cell. In this case, we simulate data with one model and fit it with a different (discrepant) one. For any individual experimental protocol, parameter estimates vary little under repeated samples from the assumed additive independent Gaussian noise model. Yet parameter sets arising from the same model applied to different experiments conflict—highlighting model discrepancy. Our methods will help select more suitable ion channel models for future studies, and will be widely applicable to a range of biological modelling problems.

KeywordDiscrepancy Experimental Design Ion Channel Mathematical Model Misspecification Uncertainty Quantification
DOI10.1007/s11538-023-01224-6
URLView the original
Indexed BySCIE
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaLife Sciences & Biomedicine - Other Topics ; Mathematical & Computational Biology
WOS SubjectBiology ; Mathematical & Computational Biology
WOS IDWOS:001105013900001
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85165224983
Fulltext Access
Citation statistics
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionDEPARTMENT OF BIOMEDICAL SCIENCES
Corresponding AuthorMirams, Gary R.
Affiliation1.Centre for Mathematical Medicine & Biology, School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, University Park, NG7 2RD, United Kingdom
2.Institute of Translational Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Macau, Macao
3.Department of Biomedical Sciences, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Macau, Macao
4.4 Systems Modeling & Translational Biology, Stevenage, GSK, United Kingdom
5.Computational Cardiology Laboratory, Victor Chang Cardiac Research Institute, Darlinghurst, Australia
6.School of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Shuttleworth, Joseph G.,Lei, Chon Lok,Whittaker, Dominic G.,et al. Empirical Quantification of Predictive Uncertainty Due to Model Discrepancy by Training with an Ensemble of Experimental Designs: An Application to Ion Channel Kinetics[J]. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 2024, 86(1), 2.
APA Shuttleworth, Joseph G.., Lei, Chon Lok., Whittaker, Dominic G.., Windley, Monique J.., Hill, Adam P.., Preston, Simon P.., & Mirams, Gary R. (2024). Empirical Quantification of Predictive Uncertainty Due to Model Discrepancy by Training with an Ensemble of Experimental Designs: An Application to Ion Channel Kinetics. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 86(1), 2.
MLA Shuttleworth, Joseph G.,et al."Empirical Quantification of Predictive Uncertainty Due to Model Discrepancy by Training with an Ensemble of Experimental Designs: An Application to Ion Channel Kinetics".Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 86.1(2024):2.
Files in This Item:
There are no files associated with this item.
Related Services
Recommend this item
Bookmark
Usage statistics
Export to Endnote
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Shuttleworth, J...]'s Articles
[Lei, Chon Lok]'s Articles
[]'s Articles
Baidu academic
Similar articles in Baidu academic
[Shuttleworth, J...]'s Articles
[Lei, Chon Lok]'s Articles
[Whittaker, Domi...]'s Articles
Bing Scholar
Similar articles in Bing Scholar
[Shuttleworth, J...]'s Articles
[Lei, Chon Lok]'s Articles
[Whittaker, Domi...]'s Articles
Terms of Use
No data!
Social Bookmark/Share
All comments (0)
No comment.
 

Items in the repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.