Residential College | false |
Status | 已發表Published |
Empirical Quantification of Predictive Uncertainty Due to Model Discrepancy by Training with an Ensemble of Experimental Designs: An Application to Ion Channel Kinetics | |
Shuttleworth, Joseph G.1; Lei, Chon Lok2,3; Whittaker, Dominic G.1,4; Windley, Monique J.5,6; Hill, Adam P.5,6; Preston, Simon P.1; Mirams, Gary R.1 | |
2024 | |
Source Publication | Bulletin of Mathematical Biology |
ISSN | 0092-8240 |
Volume | 86Issue:1Pages:2 |
Abstract | When using mathematical models to make quantitative predictions for clinical or industrial use, it is important that predictions come with a reliable estimate of their accuracy (uncertainty quantification). Because models of complex biological systems are always large simplifications, model discrepancy arises—models fail to perfectly recapitulate the true data generating process. This presents a particular challenge for making accurate predictions, and especially for accurately quantifying uncertainty in these predictions. Experimentalists and modellers must choose which experimental procedures (protocols) are used to produce data used to train models. We propose to characterise uncertainty owing to model discrepancy with an ensemble of parameter sets, each of which results from training to data from a different protocol. The variability in predictions from this ensemble provides an empirical estimate of predictive uncertainty owing to model discrepancy, even for unseen protocols. We use the example of electrophysiology experiments that investigate the properties of hERG potassium channels. Here, ‘information-rich’ protocols allow mathematical models to be trained using numerous short experiments performed on the same cell. In this case, we simulate data with one model and fit it with a different (discrepant) one. For any individual experimental protocol, parameter estimates vary little under repeated samples from the assumed additive independent Gaussian noise model. Yet parameter sets arising from the same model applied to different experiments conflict—highlighting model discrepancy. Our methods will help select more suitable ion channel models for future studies, and will be widely applicable to a range of biological modelling problems. |
Keyword | Discrepancy Experimental Design Ion Channel Mathematical Model Misspecification Uncertainty Quantification |
DOI | 10.1007/s11538-023-01224-6 |
URL | View the original |
Indexed By | SCIE |
Language | 英語English |
WOS Research Area | Life Sciences & Biomedicine - Other Topics ; Mathematical & Computational Biology |
WOS Subject | Biology ; Mathematical & Computational Biology |
WOS ID | WOS:001105013900001 |
Scopus ID | 2-s2.0-85165224983 |
Fulltext Access | |
Citation statistics | |
Document Type | Journal article |
Collection | DEPARTMENT OF BIOMEDICAL SCIENCES |
Corresponding Author | Mirams, Gary R. |
Affiliation | 1.Centre for Mathematical Medicine & Biology, School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, University Park, NG7 2RD, United Kingdom 2.Institute of Translational Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Macau, Macao 3.Department of Biomedical Sciences, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Macau, Macao 4.4 Systems Modeling & Translational Biology, Stevenage, GSK, United Kingdom 5.Computational Cardiology Laboratory, Victor Chang Cardiac Research Institute, Darlinghurst, Australia 6.School of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia |
Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Shuttleworth, Joseph G.,Lei, Chon Lok,Whittaker, Dominic G.,et al. Empirical Quantification of Predictive Uncertainty Due to Model Discrepancy by Training with an Ensemble of Experimental Designs: An Application to Ion Channel Kinetics[J]. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 2024, 86(1), 2. |
APA | Shuttleworth, Joseph G.., Lei, Chon Lok., Whittaker, Dominic G.., Windley, Monique J.., Hill, Adam P.., Preston, Simon P.., & Mirams, Gary R. (2024). Empirical Quantification of Predictive Uncertainty Due to Model Discrepancy by Training with an Ensemble of Experimental Designs: An Application to Ion Channel Kinetics. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 86(1), 2. |
MLA | Shuttleworth, Joseph G.,et al."Empirical Quantification of Predictive Uncertainty Due to Model Discrepancy by Training with an Ensemble of Experimental Designs: An Application to Ion Channel Kinetics".Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 86.1(2024):2. |
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