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Nonlinear causal relationships between urbanization and extreme climate events in China
Zhao, Qikang1,2,6; Gao, Liang1,3; Meng, Qingyan2,4,5; Zhu, Mingming1; Xiong, Meiyu6
2024
Source PublicationJournal of Cleaner Production
ABS Journal Level2
ISSN0959-6526
Volume434Pages:139889
Abstract

China has undergone rapid urbanization since 1980s, which could in return alter the occurrences of regional weather and sequential hazards, posing challenges to sustainable development of human society. However, casual relationships between urbanization and climate extremes are still poorly understood. In this study, causal relationships between urbanization and extreme temperature/precipitation are quantified using a nonlinear Granger causality framework. Causal hotspots are observed not only in major urban agglomerations but well as in less urbanized areas. For both temperature and precipitation extremes, the impact of urbanization could last within 5 years (mainly 4 years).The causality varies greatly with different climate background, but the contribution of urbanization to extreme temperature and precipitation exhibits a high level of consistency in individual city. Urbanization has profoundly causal relationships with nighttime extreme heat with higher morbidity and mortality to urban residents. Averagely, urbanization causally accounts for almost 36.9% to temperature extremes. On the other hand, urbanization has higher casual contribution to total precipitation. The inland regions are more likely to be affected by urbanization than coastal regions due to weak monsoon influence. On average, urbanization causally accounts for almost 39.7% to precipitation indices. This study innovatively reveals the significant causal relationships between urbanization and extreme temperature/precipitation changing patterns of China, providing valuable insights for developing sustainable cities in the future.

KeywordUrbanization Effects Extreme Events Nonlinear Granger Causality Climate Change
DOI10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.139889
URLView the original
Indexed BySCIE
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaScience & Technology - Other Topics ; Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS SubjectGreen & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Engineering, Environmental ; Environmental Sciences
WOS IDWOS:001131168400001
PublisherELSEVIER SCI LTD, 125 London Wall, London EC2Y 5AS, ENGLAND
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85178580920
Fulltext Access
Citation statistics
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionTHE STATE KEY LABORATORY OF INTERNET OF THINGS FOR SMART CITY (UNIVERSITY OF MACAU)
Corresponding AuthorGao, Liang; Meng, Qingyan
Affiliation1.State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City and Department of Ocean Science and Technology, University of Macau, Macao, China
2.Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
3.Centre for Ocean Research in Hong Kong and Macao, Macao, China
4.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
5.Key Laboratory of Earth Observation of Hainan Province, Hainan Aerospace Information Research Institute, Sanya, China
6.School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China
First Author AffilicationUniversity of Macau
Corresponding Author AffilicationUniversity of Macau
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Zhao, Qikang,Gao, Liang,Meng, Qingyan,et al. Nonlinear causal relationships between urbanization and extreme climate events in China[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2024, 434, 139889.
APA Zhao, Qikang., Gao, Liang., Meng, Qingyan., Zhu, Mingming., & Xiong, Meiyu (2024). Nonlinear causal relationships between urbanization and extreme climate events in China. Journal of Cleaner Production, 434, 139889.
MLA Zhao, Qikang,et al."Nonlinear causal relationships between urbanization and extreme climate events in China".Journal of Cleaner Production 434(2024):139889.
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