Residential College | false |
Status | 即將出版Forthcoming |
Combining dimensionality reduction methods with neural networks for realized volatility forecasting | |
Andrea Bucci1; HE Lidan2; Liu Z(劉志)3 | |
2023-08 | |
Source Publication | Annals of Operations Research |
ABS Journal Level | 3 |
ISSN | 0254-5330 |
Abstract | The application of artificial neural networks to finance has recently received a great deal of attention from both investors and researchers, particularly as a forecasting tool. However, when dealing with a large number of predictors, these methods may overfit the data and provide poor out-of-sample forecasts. Our paper addresses this issue by employing two different approaches to predict realized volatility. On the one hand, we use a two-step procedure where several dimensionality reduction methods, such as Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (Lasso), are employed in the initial step to reduce dimensionality. The reduced samples are then combined with artificial neutral networks. On the other hand, we implement two singlestep regularized neural networks that can shrink the input weights to zero and effectively handle high-dimensional data. Our findings on the volatility of different stock asset prices indicate that the reduced models outperform the compared models without regularization in terms of predictive accuracy. |
Keyword | Realized Volatility Artificial Neural Network Machine-learning Pca Method Bayesian Model Averaging |
Indexed By | SCIE |
WOS Research Area | Operations Research & Management Science |
WOS Subject | Operations Research & Management Science |
WOS ID | WOS:001060633400002 |
Publisher | SPRINGER, VAN GODEWIJCKSTRAAT 30, 3311 GZ DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS |
Scopus ID | 2-s2.0-85171559073 |
Fulltext Access | |
Citation statistics | |
Document Type | Journal article |
Collection | Faculty of Science and Technology DEPARTMENT OF MATHEMATICS |
Corresponding Author | Andrea Bucci |
Affiliation | 1.Department of Economics and Law, University of Macerata, Via Crescimbeni, 62100 Macerata, Italy 2.School of Mathematics and Statistics, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, 219 Ningliu Road, Pukou District, Nanjing 211544, China 3.Faculty of Science and Technology, University of Macau, Avenida de Universidade, Taipa, Macau, China |
Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Andrea Bucci,HE Lidan,Liu Z. Combining dimensionality reduction methods with neural networks for realized volatility forecasting[J]. Annals of Operations Research, 2023. |
APA | Andrea Bucci., HE Lidan., & Liu Z (2023). Combining dimensionality reduction methods with neural networks for realized volatility forecasting. Annals of Operations Research. |
MLA | Andrea Bucci,et al."Combining dimensionality reduction methods with neural networks for realized volatility forecasting".Annals of Operations Research (2023). |
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