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Combating Distribution Shift for Accurate Time Series Forecasting via Hypernetworks
Duan,Wenying1; He,Xiaoxi2; Zhou,Lu3; Thiele,Lothar4; Rao,Hong1
2023-06-03
Conference Name28th IEEE International Conference on Parallel and Distributed Systems, ICPADS 2022
Source PublicationProceedings of the International Conference on Parallel and Distributed Systems - ICPADS
Pages900-907
Conference Date2023-01-10 - 2023-01-12
Conference PlaceNanjing, PEOPLES R CHINA
Author of SourceIEEE Comp Society; Nanjing Univ Posts & Telecommunicat
PublisherIEEE Computer Society
Abstract

Time series forecasting has widespread applications in urban life ranging from air quality monitoring to traffic analysis. However, accurate time series forecasting is challenging because real-world time series suffer from the distribution shift problem, where their statistical properties change over time. Despite extensive solutions to distribution shifts in domain adaptation or generalization, they fail to function effectively in unknown, constantly-changing distribution shifts, which are common in time series. In this paper, we propose Hyper TimeSeries Forecasting (HTSF), a hypernetwork-based framework for accurate time series forecasting under distribution shift. HTSF jointly learns the time-varying distributions and the corresponding forecasting models in an end-to-end fashion. Specifically, HTSF exploits the hyper layers to learn the best characterization of the distribution shifts, generating the model parameters for the main layers to make accurate predictions. We implement HTSF as an extensible framework that can incorporate diverse time series forecasting models such as RNNs. Extensive experiments on 7 benchmarks demonstrate that HTSF achieves state-of-the-art performances.

KeywordDistribution Shift Hypernetworks Time Series Forecasting
DOI10.1109/ICPADS56603.2022.00121
URLView the original
Indexed ByCPCI-S
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaComputer Science ; Engineering
WOS SubjectComputer Science, Artificial Intelligence ; Computer Science, Hardware & Architecture ; Computer Science, Theory & Methods ; Engineering, Electrical & Electronic
WOS IDWOS:000983289900113
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85152950157
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Document TypeConference paper
CollectionDEPARTMENT OF ELECTRICAL AND COMPUTER ENGINEERING
Corresponding AuthorRao,Hong
Affiliation1.Nanchang University,Nanchang,China
2.University of Macau,Macao
3.The Hong Kong Polytechnic University,Hong Kong
4.Eth Zurich,Zurich,Switzerland
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Duan,Wenying,He,Xiaoxi,Zhou,Lu,et al. Combating Distribution Shift for Accurate Time Series Forecasting via Hypernetworks[C]. IEEE Comp Society; Nanjing Univ Posts & Telecommunicat:IEEE Computer Society, 2023, 900-907.
APA Duan,Wenying., He,Xiaoxi., Zhou,Lu., Thiele,Lothar., & Rao,Hong (2023). Combating Distribution Shift for Accurate Time Series Forecasting via Hypernetworks. Proceedings of the International Conference on Parallel and Distributed Systems - ICPADS, 900-907.
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