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A Multistep Interval Prediction Method Combining Environmental Variables and Attention Mechanism for Egg Production Rate
Yin, Hang1,2; Wu, Zeyu2; Wu, Jun Chao3; Chen, Yalin2; Chen, Mingxuan2; Luo, Shixuan2; Gao, Lijun4; Hassan, Shahbaz Gul2
2023-06-15
Source PublicationAgriculture (Switzerland)
Volume13Issue:6Pages:1255
Abstract

The egg production rate is a crucial metric in animal breeding, subject to biological and environmental influences and exhibits characteristics of small sample sizes and non-linearity. Currently, egg production rate prediction research predominantly focuses on single-step point prediction, lacking multistep and interval prediction exploration. To bridge these gaps, this study proposes a recursive, multistep interval prediction method for egg production rates, integrating environmental variables and attention mechanisms. Initially, this study employed three gradient boosting tree models (XGBoost, LightGBM, CatBoost) and the recursive feature elimination (RFE) method to select critical environmental variables and reduce data dimensionality. Subsequently, by scaling the time scale of important environmental variables and utilizing the variational modal decomposition improved by the grey wolf optimization (GWO-VMD) method for time-series decomposition, the volume of important environmental variable data is augmented and its complexity is reduced. Applying the long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network to obtain direct multistep predictions on IMFs, the predicted outcomes are averaged daily to yield the environmental variables for the upcoming two days. Finally, a multistep interval prediction model based on Seq2seq-Attention and Gaussian distribution is proposed in this study, and parameter optimization is carried out using the multi-objective grey wolf optimization algorithm (MOGWO). By inputting the historical egg production rate data and environmental variables into the proposed model, it is possible to achieve multistep point and interval prediction of egg production rates. This method was applied to analyze a dataset of egg production rates of waterfowl. The study demonstrated the feasibility of the recursive multistep prediction approach combined with environmental variables and guides egg production estimation and environmental regulation in animal husbandry.

KeywordEgg Production Rate Environmental Variables Selection Gwo-vmd Decomposition Interval Prediction Mogwo Optimize Parameter Multistep Point Prediction Seq2seq-attention
DOI10.3390/agriculture13061255
URLView the original
Indexed BySCIE
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaAgriculture
WOS SubjectAgronomy
WOS IDWOS:001013909400001
PublisherMDPI, ST ALBAN-ANLAGE 66, CH-4052 BASEL, SWITZERLAND
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85163857953
Fulltext Access
Citation statistics
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionINSTITUTE OF COLLABORATIVE INNOVATION
Corresponding AuthorYin, Hang; Hassan, Shahbaz Gul
Affiliation1.College of Big Data and Internet, Shenzhen Technology University, Shenzhen, 518118, China
2.College of Information Science and Technology, Zhongkai University of Agriculture and Engineering, Guangzhou, 510225, China
3.Institute of Collaborative Innovation, University of Macau, 999078, Macao
4.College of Computer Science, Shenyang Aerospace University, Shenyang, 110136, China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Yin, Hang,Wu, Zeyu,Wu, Jun Chao,et al. A Multistep Interval Prediction Method Combining Environmental Variables and Attention Mechanism for Egg Production Rate[J]. Agriculture (Switzerland), 2023, 13(6), 1255.
APA Yin, Hang., Wu, Zeyu., Wu, Jun Chao., Chen, Yalin., Chen, Mingxuan., Luo, Shixuan., Gao, Lijun., & Hassan, Shahbaz Gul (2023). A Multistep Interval Prediction Method Combining Environmental Variables and Attention Mechanism for Egg Production Rate. Agriculture (Switzerland), 13(6), 1255.
MLA Yin, Hang,et al."A Multistep Interval Prediction Method Combining Environmental Variables and Attention Mechanism for Egg Production Rate".Agriculture (Switzerland) 13.6(2023):1255.
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