Residential College | false |
Status | 已發表Published |
A Multistep Interval Prediction Method Combining Environmental Variables and Attention Mechanism for Egg Production Rate | |
Yin, Hang1,2; Wu, Zeyu2; Wu, Jun Chao3; Chen, Yalin2; Chen, Mingxuan2; Luo, Shixuan2; Gao, Lijun4; Hassan, Shahbaz Gul2 | |
2023-06-15 | |
Source Publication | Agriculture (Switzerland) |
Volume | 13Issue:6Pages:1255 |
Abstract | The egg production rate is a crucial metric in animal breeding, subject to biological and environmental influences and exhibits characteristics of small sample sizes and non-linearity. Currently, egg production rate prediction research predominantly focuses on single-step point prediction, lacking multistep and interval prediction exploration. To bridge these gaps, this study proposes a recursive, multistep interval prediction method for egg production rates, integrating environmental variables and attention mechanisms. Initially, this study employed three gradient boosting tree models (XGBoost, LightGBM, CatBoost) and the recursive feature elimination (RFE) method to select critical environmental variables and reduce data dimensionality. Subsequently, by scaling the time scale of important environmental variables and utilizing the variational modal decomposition improved by the grey wolf optimization (GWO-VMD) method for time-series decomposition, the volume of important environmental variable data is augmented and its complexity is reduced. Applying the long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network to obtain direct multistep predictions on IMFs, the predicted outcomes are averaged daily to yield the environmental variables for the upcoming two days. Finally, a multistep interval prediction model based on Seq2seq-Attention and Gaussian distribution is proposed in this study, and parameter optimization is carried out using the multi-objective grey wolf optimization algorithm (MOGWO). By inputting the historical egg production rate data and environmental variables into the proposed model, it is possible to achieve multistep point and interval prediction of egg production rates. This method was applied to analyze a dataset of egg production rates of waterfowl. The study demonstrated the feasibility of the recursive multistep prediction approach combined with environmental variables and guides egg production estimation and environmental regulation in animal husbandry. |
Keyword | Egg Production Rate Environmental Variables Selection Gwo-vmd Decomposition Interval Prediction Mogwo Optimize Parameter Multistep Point Prediction Seq2seq-attention |
DOI | 10.3390/agriculture13061255 |
URL | View the original |
Indexed By | SCIE |
Language | 英語English |
WOS Research Area | Agriculture |
WOS Subject | Agronomy |
WOS ID | WOS:001013909400001 |
Publisher | MDPI, ST ALBAN-ANLAGE 66, CH-4052 BASEL, SWITZERLAND |
Scopus ID | 2-s2.0-85163857953 |
Fulltext Access | |
Citation statistics | |
Document Type | Journal article |
Collection | INSTITUTE OF COLLABORATIVE INNOVATION |
Corresponding Author | Yin, Hang; Hassan, Shahbaz Gul |
Affiliation | 1.College of Big Data and Internet, Shenzhen Technology University, Shenzhen, 518118, China 2.College of Information Science and Technology, Zhongkai University of Agriculture and Engineering, Guangzhou, 510225, China 3.Institute of Collaborative Innovation, University of Macau, 999078, Macao 4.College of Computer Science, Shenyang Aerospace University, Shenyang, 110136, China |
Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Yin, Hang,Wu, Zeyu,Wu, Jun Chao,et al. A Multistep Interval Prediction Method Combining Environmental Variables and Attention Mechanism for Egg Production Rate[J]. Agriculture (Switzerland), 2023, 13(6), 1255. |
APA | Yin, Hang., Wu, Zeyu., Wu, Jun Chao., Chen, Yalin., Chen, Mingxuan., Luo, Shixuan., Gao, Lijun., & Hassan, Shahbaz Gul (2023). A Multistep Interval Prediction Method Combining Environmental Variables and Attention Mechanism for Egg Production Rate. Agriculture (Switzerland), 13(6), 1255. |
MLA | Yin, Hang,et al."A Multistep Interval Prediction Method Combining Environmental Variables and Attention Mechanism for Egg Production Rate".Agriculture (Switzerland) 13.6(2023):1255. |
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