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Autocorrelated measurement processes and inference for ordinary differential equation models of biological systems
Lambert, Ben1; Lei, Chon Lok2; Robinson, Martin3; Clerx, Michael4; Creswell, Richard3; Ghosh, Sanmitra5; Tavener, Simon6; Gavaghan, David J.3
2023-02-22
Source PublicationJournal of the Royal Society Interface
ISSN1742-5689
Volume20Issue:199Pages:20220725
Abstract

Ordinary differential equation models are used to describe dynamic processes across biology. To perform likelihood-based parameter inference on these models, it is necessary to specify a statistical process representing the contribution of factors not explicitly included in the mathematical model. For this, independent Gaussian noise is commonly chosen, with its use so widespread that researchers typically provide no explicit justification for this choice. This noise model assumes 'random' latent factors affect the system in the ephemeral fashion resulting in unsystematic deviation of observables from their modelled counterparts. However, like the deterministically modelled parts of a system, these latent factors can have persistent effects on observables. Here, we use experimental data from dynamical systems drawn from cardiac physiology and electrochemistry to demonstrate that highly persistent differences between observations and modelled quantities can occur. Considering the case when persistent noise arises owing only to measurement imperfections, we use the Fisher information matrix to quantify how uncertainty in parameter estimates is artificially reduced when erroneously assuming independent noise. We present a workflow to diagnose persistent noise from model fits and describe how to remodel accounting for correlated errors.

KeywordAutocorrelation Bayesian Statistics Fisher Information Inference Measurement Error Ordinary Differential Equations
DOI10.1098/rsif.2022.0725
URLView the original
Indexed BySCIE
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaScience & Technology - Other Topics
WOS SubjectMultidisciplinary Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000936200300004
PublisherROYAL SOC, 6-9 CARLTON HOUSE TERRACE, LONDON SW1Y 5AG, ENGLAND
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85148998492
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Citation statistics
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionInstitute of Translational Medicine
DEPARTMENT OF BIOMEDICAL SCIENCES
Corresponding AuthorLambert, Ben
Affiliation1.Department of Mathematics, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4PY, United Kingdom
2.Faculty of Health Sciences, Institute of Translational Medicine, University of Macau, Macau, Macao
3.Department of Computer Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3QG, United Kingdom
4.School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, NG7 2RD, United Kingdom
5.MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 0SR, United Kingdom
6.Department of Mathematics, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, 80523, United States
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Lambert, Ben,Lei, Chon Lok,Robinson, Martin,et al. Autocorrelated measurement processes and inference for ordinary differential equation models of biological systems[J]. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 2023, 20(199), 20220725.
APA Lambert, Ben., Lei, Chon Lok., Robinson, Martin., Clerx, Michael., Creswell, Richard., Ghosh, Sanmitra., Tavener, Simon., & Gavaghan, David J. (2023). Autocorrelated measurement processes and inference for ordinary differential equation models of biological systems. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 20(199), 20220725.
MLA Lambert, Ben,et al."Autocorrelated measurement processes and inference for ordinary differential equation models of biological systems".Journal of the Royal Society Interface 20.199(2023):20220725.
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