Residential College | false |
Status | 已發表Published |
Wind Power Prediction Based on Multi-Class Autoregressive Moving Average Model with Logistic Function | |
Yunxuan Dong1; Shaodan Ma1; Hongcai Zhang1; Guanghua Yang2 | |
2022-09 | |
Source Publication | Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy |
ISSN | 2196-5625 |
Volume | 10Issue:5Pages:1184 - 1193 |
Abstract | The seasonality and randomness of wind present a significant challenge to the operation of modern power systems with high penetration of wind generation. An effective short-term wind power prediction model is indispensable to address this challenge. In this paper, we propose a combined model, i.e., a wind power prediction model based on multi-class autoregressive moving average (ARMA). It has a two-layer structure: the first layer classifies the wind power data into multiple classes with the logistic function based classification method; the second layer trains the prediction algorithm in each class. This two-layer structure helps effectively tackle the seasonality and randomness of wind power while at the same time maintaining high training efficiency with moderate model parameters. We interpret the training of the proposed model as a solvable optimization problem. We then adopt an iterative algorithm with a semi-closed-form solution to efficiently solve it. Data samples from open-source projects demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. Through a series of comparisons with other state-of-the-art models, the experimental results confirm that the proposed model improves not only the prediction accuracy, but also the parameter estimation efficiency. |
Keyword | Wind Power Prediction Wind Generation Time Series Analysis Logistic Function Based Classification |
DOI | 10.35833/MPCE.2021.000717 |
URL | View the original |
Indexed By | SCIE |
Language | 英語English |
WOS Research Area | Engineering |
WOS Subject | Engineering, Electrical & Electronic |
WOS ID | WOS:000861437100010 |
Publisher | IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC445 HOES LANE, PISCATAWAY, NJ 08855-4141 |
Scopus ID | 2-s2.0-85139554630 |
Fulltext Access | |
Citation statistics | |
Document Type | Journal article |
Collection | Faculty of Science and Technology University of Macau THE STATE KEY LABORATORY OF INTERNET OF THINGS FOR SMART CITY (UNIVERSITY OF MACAU) |
Corresponding Author | Hongcai Zhang |
Affiliation | 1.State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City and Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Macau, Macao, 999078, Macao 2.Institute of Physical Internet, School of Intelligent Systems Science and Engineering, Jinan University, Zhuhai, 519070, China |
First Author Affilication | University of Macau |
Corresponding Author Affilication | University of Macau |
Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Yunxuan Dong,Shaodan Ma,Hongcai Zhang,et al. Wind Power Prediction Based on Multi-Class Autoregressive Moving Average Model with Logistic Function[J]. Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy, 2022, 10(5), 1184 - 1193. |
APA | Yunxuan Dong., Shaodan Ma., Hongcai Zhang., & Guanghua Yang (2022). Wind Power Prediction Based on Multi-Class Autoregressive Moving Average Model with Logistic Function. Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy, 10(5), 1184 - 1193. |
MLA | Yunxuan Dong,et al."Wind Power Prediction Based on Multi-Class Autoregressive Moving Average Model with Logistic Function".Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy 10.5(2022):1184 - 1193. |
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