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Wind Power Prediction Based on Multi-Class Autoregressive Moving Average Model with Logistic Function
Yunxuan Dong1; Shaodan Ma1; Hongcai Zhang1; Guanghua Yang2
2022-09
Source PublicationJournal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy
ISSN2196-5625
Volume10Issue:5Pages:1184 - 1193
Abstract

The seasonality and randomness of wind present a significant challenge to the operation of modern power systems with high penetration of wind generation. An effective short-term wind power prediction model is indispensable to address this challenge. In this paper, we propose a combined model, i.e., a wind power prediction model based on multi-class autoregressive moving average (ARMA). It has a two-layer structure: the first layer classifies the wind power data into multiple classes with the logistic function based classification method; the second layer trains the prediction algorithm in each class. This two-layer structure helps effectively tackle the seasonality and randomness of wind power while at the same time maintaining high training efficiency with moderate model parameters. We interpret the training of the proposed model as a solvable optimization problem. We then adopt an iterative algorithm with a semi-closed-form solution to efficiently solve it. Data samples from open-source projects demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. Through a series of comparisons with other state-of-the-art models, the experimental results confirm that the proposed model improves not only the prediction accuracy, but also the parameter estimation efficiency.

KeywordWind Power Prediction Wind Generation Time Series Analysis Logistic Function Based Classification
DOI10.35833/MPCE.2021.000717
URLView the original
Indexed BySCIE
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaEngineering
WOS SubjectEngineering, Electrical & Electronic
WOS IDWOS:000861437100010
PublisherIEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC445 HOES LANE, PISCATAWAY, NJ 08855-4141
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85139554630
Fulltext Access
Citation statistics
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionFaculty of Science and Technology
University of Macau
THE STATE KEY LABORATORY OF INTERNET OF THINGS FOR SMART CITY (UNIVERSITY OF MACAU)
Corresponding AuthorHongcai Zhang
Affiliation1.State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City and Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Macau, Macao, 999078, Macao
2.Institute of Physical Internet, School of Intelligent Systems Science and Engineering, Jinan University, Zhuhai, 519070, China
First Author AffilicationUniversity of Macau
Corresponding Author AffilicationUniversity of Macau
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Yunxuan Dong,Shaodan Ma,Hongcai Zhang,et al. Wind Power Prediction Based on Multi-Class Autoregressive Moving Average Model with Logistic Function[J]. Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy, 2022, 10(5), 1184 - 1193.
APA Yunxuan Dong., Shaodan Ma., Hongcai Zhang., & Guanghua Yang (2022). Wind Power Prediction Based on Multi-Class Autoregressive Moving Average Model with Logistic Function. Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy, 10(5), 1184 - 1193.
MLA Yunxuan Dong,et al."Wind Power Prediction Based on Multi-Class Autoregressive Moving Average Model with Logistic Function".Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy 10.5(2022):1184 - 1193.
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