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A Bayesian nonparametric method for detecting rapid changes in disease transmission
Richard Creswell1; Martin Robinson1; David Gavaghan1; Kris V. Parag2,3; Chon Lok Lei4; Ben Lambert5
2022-11-13
Source PublicationJOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY
ISSN0022-5193
Volume558Pages:111351
Abstract

Whether an outbreak of infectious disease is likely to grow or dissipate is determined through the time-varying reproduction number, R. Real-time or retrospective identification of changes in R following the imposition or relaxation of interventions can thus contribute important evidence about disease transmission dynamics which can inform policymaking. Here, we present a method for estimating shifts in R within a renewal model framework. Our method, which we call EpiCluster, is a Bayesian nonparametric model based on the Pitman–Yor process. We assume that R is piecewise-constant, and the incidence data and priors determine when or whether R should change and how many times it should do so throughout the series. We also introduce a prior which induces sparsity over the number of changepoints. Being Bayesian, our approach yields a measure of uncertainty in R and its changepoints. EpiCluster is fast, straightforward to use, and we demonstrate that it provides automated detection of rapid changes in transmission, either in real-time or retrospectively, for synthetic data series where the R profile is known. We illustrate the practical utility of our method by fitting it to case data of outbreaks of COVID-19 in Australia and Hong Kong, where it finds changepoints coinciding with the imposition of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Bayesian nonparametric methods, such as ours, allow the volume and complexity of the data to dictate the number of parameters required to approximate the process and should find wide application in epidemiology. This manuscript was submitted as part of a theme issue on “Modelling COVID-19 and Preparedness for Future Pandemics”.

KeywordReproduction Number Bayesian Nonparametrics Outbreaks Epidemiology Covid-19 Changepoint Detection
DOI10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111351
URLView the original
Indexed BySCIE
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaLife Sciences & Biomedicine - Other Topics ; Mathematical & Computational Biology
WOS SubjectBiology ; Mathematical & Computational Biology
WOS IDWOS:000906072100001
PublisherACADEMIC PRESS LTD- ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD, 24-28 OVAL RD, LONDON NW1 7DX, ENGLAND
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85144588547
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Citation statistics
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionInstitute of Translational Medicine
DEPARTMENT OF BIOMEDICAL SCIENCES
Corresponding AuthorRichard Creswell; Ben Lambert
Affiliation1.Department of Computer Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
2.MRC Centre of Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
3.NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Behavioural Science and Evaluation, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
4.Institute of Translational Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Macau, Macau, China
5.College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Richard Creswell,Martin Robinson,David Gavaghan,et al. A Bayesian nonparametric method for detecting rapid changes in disease transmission[J]. JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY, 2022, 558, 111351.
APA Richard Creswell., Martin Robinson., David Gavaghan., Kris V. Parag., Chon Lok Lei., & Ben Lambert (2022). A Bayesian nonparametric method for detecting rapid changes in disease transmission. JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY, 558, 111351.
MLA Richard Creswell,et al."A Bayesian nonparametric method for detecting rapid changes in disease transmission".JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY 558(2022):111351.
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