Residential College | false |
Status | 已發表Published |
Wind speed forecast based on combined theory, multi-objective optimisation, and sub-model selection | |
Fu, Tonglin1; Zhang, Shenghui2 | |
2022-08-23 | |
Source Publication | SOFT COMPUTING |
ISSN | 1432-7643 |
Volume | 26Issue:24Pages:13615-13638 |
Abstract | Wind energy is the primary energy source for a sustainable and pollution-free global power supply. However, because of its characteristic irregularity, nonlinearity, non-stationarity, randomness, and intermittency, previous studies have only focused on stability or accuracy, and the forecast performances of their models were poor. Moreover, in previous research, the selection of sub-models used for the combined model was not considered, which weakened the generalisability. Therefore, to further improve the forecast accuracy and stability of the wind speed forecasting model, and to solve the problem of sub-model selection in the combined model, this study developed a wind speed forecasting model using data pre-processing, a multi-objective optimisation algorithm, and sub-model selection for the combined model. Simulation experiments showed that our combined model not only improved the forecasting accuracy and stability but also chose different sub-models and different weights of the combined model for different data; this improved the model generalisability. Specifically, the MAPEs of our model are less than 4.96%, 4.60%, and 5.25% in one-, two-, and three-step forecast. Thus, the proposed combined model is demonstrated as an effective tool for grid dispatching. |
Keyword | Wind Energy Wind Speed Forecasting Sub-model Selection Combined Model Multi-objective Optimisation |
DOI | 10.1007/s00500-022-07334-y |
URL | View the original |
Indexed By | SCIE |
Language | 英語English |
WOS Research Area | Computer Science |
WOS Subject | Computer Science, Artificial Intelligence ; Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications |
WOS ID | WOS:000843440000003 |
Publisher | SPRINGER, ONE NEW YORK PLAZA, SUITE 4600 , NEW YORK, NY 10004, UNITED STATES |
Scopus ID | 2-s2.0-85136949814 |
Fulltext Access | |
Citation statistics | |
Document Type | Journal article |
Collection | DEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER AND INFORMATION SCIENCE Faculty of Science and Technology THE STATE KEY LABORATORY OF INTERNET OF THINGS FOR SMART CITY (UNIVERSITY OF MACAU) |
Corresponding Author | Zhang, Shenghui |
Affiliation | 1.School of Mathematics and Statistics, Longdong University, Qingyang, Gansu, China 2.State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City, Department of Computer and Information Science Organization, University of Macau, Macao |
Corresponding Author Affilication | University of Macau |
Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Fu, Tonglin,Zhang, Shenghui. Wind speed forecast based on combined theory, multi-objective optimisation, and sub-model selection[J]. SOFT COMPUTING, 2022, 26(24), 13615-13638. |
APA | Fu, Tonglin., & Zhang, Shenghui (2022). Wind speed forecast based on combined theory, multi-objective optimisation, and sub-model selection. SOFT COMPUTING, 26(24), 13615-13638. |
MLA | Fu, Tonglin,et al."Wind speed forecast based on combined theory, multi-objective optimisation, and sub-model selection".SOFT COMPUTING 26.24(2022):13615-13638. |
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