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Wind speed forecast based on combined theory, multi-objective optimisation, and sub-model selection
Fu, Tonglin1; Zhang, Shenghui2
2022-08-23
Source PublicationSOFT COMPUTING
ISSN1432-7643
Volume26Issue:24Pages:13615-13638
Abstract

Wind energy is the primary energy source for a sustainable and pollution-free global power supply. However, because of its characteristic irregularity, nonlinearity, non-stationarity, randomness, and intermittency, previous studies have only focused on stability or accuracy, and the forecast performances of their models were poor. Moreover, in previous research, the selection of sub-models used for the combined model was not considered, which weakened the generalisability. Therefore, to further improve the forecast accuracy and stability of the wind speed forecasting model, and to solve the problem of sub-model selection in the combined model, this study developed a wind speed forecasting model using data pre-processing, a multi-objective optimisation algorithm, and sub-model selection for the combined model. Simulation experiments showed that our combined model not only improved the forecasting accuracy and stability but also chose different sub-models and different weights of the combined model for different data; this improved the model generalisability. Specifically, the MAPEs of our model are less than 4.96%, 4.60%, and 5.25% in one-, two-, and three-step forecast. Thus, the proposed combined model is demonstrated as an effective tool for grid dispatching.

KeywordWind Energy Wind Speed Forecasting Sub-model Selection Combined Model Multi-objective Optimisation
DOI10.1007/s00500-022-07334-y
URLView the original
Indexed BySCIE
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaComputer Science
WOS SubjectComputer Science, Artificial Intelligence ; Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications
WOS IDWOS:000843440000003
PublisherSPRINGER, ONE NEW YORK PLAZA, SUITE 4600 , NEW YORK, NY 10004, UNITED STATES
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85136949814
Fulltext Access
Citation statistics
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionDEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER AND INFORMATION SCIENCE
Faculty of Science and Technology
THE STATE KEY LABORATORY OF INTERNET OF THINGS FOR SMART CITY (UNIVERSITY OF MACAU)
Corresponding AuthorZhang, Shenghui
Affiliation1.School of Mathematics and Statistics, Longdong University, Qingyang, Gansu, China
2.State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City, Department of Computer and Information Science Organization, University of Macau, Macao
Corresponding Author AffilicationUniversity of Macau
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Fu, Tonglin,Zhang, Shenghui. Wind speed forecast based on combined theory, multi-objective optimisation, and sub-model selection[J]. SOFT COMPUTING, 2022, 26(24), 13615-13638.
APA Fu, Tonglin., & Zhang, Shenghui (2022). Wind speed forecast based on combined theory, multi-objective optimisation, and sub-model selection. SOFT COMPUTING, 26(24), 13615-13638.
MLA Fu, Tonglin,et al."Wind speed forecast based on combined theory, multi-objective optimisation, and sub-model selection".SOFT COMPUTING 26.24(2022):13615-13638.
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