Residential College | false |
Status | 已發表Published |
Exploiting the interpretability and forecasting ability of the RBF-AR model for nonlinear time series | |
Gan M.1; Philip Chen C.L.2; Chen L.2; Zhang C.-Y.2 | |
2016-06-10 | |
Source Publication | International Journal of Systems Science |
ISSN | 14645319 00207721 |
Volume | 47Issue:8Pages:1868-1876 |
Abstract | In this paper, we explore the radial basis function network-based state-dependent autoregressive (RBF-AR) model by modelling and forecasting an ecological time series: the famous Canadian lynx data. The interpretability of the state-dependent coefficients of the RBF-AR model is studied. It is found that the RBF-AR model can account for the phenomena of phase and density dependencies in the Canadian lynx cycle. The post-sample forecasting performance of one-step and two-step ahead predictors of the RBF-AR model is compared with that of other competitive time-series models including various parametric and non-parametric models. The results show the usefulness of the RBF-AR model in this ecological time-series modelling. |
Keyword | Forecasting Modelling State-dependent Model Time Series Varying Coefficient Model |
DOI | 10.1080/00207721.2014.955552 |
URL | View the original |
Indexed By | SCIE |
Language | 英語English |
WOS Research Area | Automation & Control Systems ; Operations Research & Management Science ; Computer Science |
WOS Subject | Automation & Control Systems ; Computer Science, Theory & Methods ; Operations Research & Management Science |
WOS ID | WOS:000368197200011 |
Scopus ID | 2-s2.0-84954404698 |
Fulltext Access | |
Citation statistics | |
Document Type | Journal article |
Collection | DEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER AND INFORMATION SCIENCE |
Affiliation | 1.Hefei University of Technology 2.Universidade de Macau |
Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Gan M.,Philip Chen C.L.,Chen L.,et al. Exploiting the interpretability and forecasting ability of the RBF-AR model for nonlinear time series[J]. International Journal of Systems Science, 2016, 47(8), 1868-1876. |
APA | Gan M.., Philip Chen C.L.., Chen L.., & Zhang C.-Y. (2016). Exploiting the interpretability and forecasting ability of the RBF-AR model for nonlinear time series. International Journal of Systems Science, 47(8), 1868-1876. |
MLA | Gan M.,et al."Exploiting the interpretability and forecasting ability of the RBF-AR model for nonlinear time series".International Journal of Systems Science 47.8(2016):1868-1876. |
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