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Exploiting the interpretability and forecasting ability of the RBF-AR model for nonlinear time series
Gan M.1; Philip Chen C.L.2; Chen L.2; Zhang C.-Y.2
2016-06-10
Source PublicationInternational Journal of Systems Science
ISSN14645319 00207721
Volume47Issue:8Pages:1868-1876
Abstract

In this paper, we explore the radial basis function network-based state-dependent autoregressive (RBF-AR) model by modelling and forecasting an ecological time series: the famous Canadian lynx data. The interpretability of the state-dependent coefficients of the RBF-AR model is studied. It is found that the RBF-AR model can account for the phenomena of phase and density dependencies in the Canadian lynx cycle. The post-sample forecasting performance of one-step and two-step ahead predictors of the RBF-AR model is compared with that of other competitive time-series models including various parametric and non-parametric models. The results show the usefulness of the RBF-AR model in this ecological time-series modelling.

KeywordForecasting Modelling State-dependent Model Time Series Varying Coefficient Model
DOI10.1080/00207721.2014.955552
URLView the original
Indexed BySCIE
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaAutomation & Control Systems ; Operations Research & Management Science ; Computer Science
WOS SubjectAutomation & Control Systems ; Computer Science, Theory & Methods ; Operations Research & Management Science
WOS IDWOS:000368197200011
Scopus ID2-s2.0-84954404698
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Citation statistics
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionDEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER AND INFORMATION SCIENCE
Affiliation1.Hefei University of Technology
2.Universidade de Macau
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Gan M.,Philip Chen C.L.,Chen L.,et al. Exploiting the interpretability and forecasting ability of the RBF-AR model for nonlinear time series[J]. International Journal of Systems Science, 2016, 47(8), 1868-1876.
APA Gan M.., Philip Chen C.L.., Chen L.., & Zhang C.-Y. (2016). Exploiting the interpretability and forecasting ability of the RBF-AR model for nonlinear time series. International Journal of Systems Science, 47(8), 1868-1876.
MLA Gan M.,et al."Exploiting the interpretability and forecasting ability of the RBF-AR model for nonlinear time series".International Journal of Systems Science 47.8(2016):1868-1876.
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