| Status | 已發表Published |
| Macroeconomic Forecast for Macao 2017 | |
Mirrlees, J. A.; Kwan, F. ; Ho, W. H.; Liu, C. W. ; Chan, C. S.
| |
| 2017 | |
| Abstract | According to the IMF forecasts on October 2016, global growth is projected to grow at 3.4% in 2017, reflects a more subdued outlook for advanced economies following political uncertainties in the United States and European Union. U.S. GDP will be expected to expand at 2.2% and the Euro Area is likely to grow slightly at 1.5%. For Mainland China, the GDP growth rate has been stable at 6.7% in the third quarter of 2016. This affected Hong Kong, another major market of Macao’s service exports, to have a lower growth. It grew by 1.9% in third quarter of 2016. The U.S. Fed has raised its interest rate again on December 2016 and is expected to continue the increase in 2017. European Central Bank continued its Quantitative Easing to mitigate the possibility of recession and deflation in eurozone. Mainland China’s GDP expected to grow at comparable pace in 2017 amid the Central Government tries to stabilize mainland China’s economic growth. With real estate and industrial production growing up in 2016, the Chinese visitors’ gaming spending in Macao went up again. As mainland China is expected to have stabilized growth in 2017, Macao's exports of services are expected to increase by 2.5% in 2017. Exports of goods declined drastically in 2016 and are expected to decrease by 7.6% in 2017. Concomitant with the slowdown in local consumption, imports of goods are expected to reduce by 0.2% in 2017. Amid the rise in exports of services, the imports of services will expand. The growth rates of imports of services are expected to increase by 4.0% in 2017. For the domestic demand, private consumption spending continued to grow slower in 2016 in particular on durable goods. It is expected to grow at 1.8% in 2017. Constructions in new casinos and hotels are expected to continue and total investment is expected to grow 3.8% in 2017. Inflation, as measured by the change in the Composite Consumer Price Index, is expected to continue to decline amid sluggish demand from local residents. It is expected to be 2.1% in 2017. For the aggregate economy, the GDP price deflator is forecast to increase 2.2% in 2017. The labour market became stable. Unemployment rate is forecast to be 2.0% in 2017. Excluded the non-resident workers, the unemployment rate of local residents is expected to be 2.6% in 2017. Median monthly employment earnings are forecast to increase by 1.2% in 2017. For the whole economy, Macao’s GDP is expected to decline of rate 3.2%, with ranged from a pessimistic of rate -6.9% to an optimistic of rate 13.2% in 2017, according to the Macroeconometric Structural Model of Macao. Data and our forecast indicate the possibility of continuous adjustment of Macao’s growth in 2017. Given the gross gaming revenue is highly influenced by government policies and may adjust greatly throughout the year, reflected by the short term fluctuation. We will update the forecast to reflect the possible adjustment. |
| Keyword | Macroeconomics Forecast Macau economy |
| Language | 英語English |
| The Source to Article | PB_Publication |
| PUB ID | 30667 |
| Document Type | Report |
| Collection | DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS |
| Corresponding Author | Liu, C. W. |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Mirrlees, J. A.,Kwan, F.,Ho, W. H.,et al. Macroeconomic Forecast for Macao 2017, 2017. |
| Files in This Item: | There are no files associated with this item. | |||||
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