| Status | 已發表Published |
| Macroeconomic Forecast for Macao Janauary 2019 | |
Chan, C. S. ; Kwan, F. ; Ho, W. H.; Liu, C. W.
| |
| 2019-01-07 | |
| Abstract | On October 2018, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected global economy to grow at 3.7% in both 2018 and 2019. The forecasts were revised downward from April 2018. The downward revision reflects surprises that suppressed activity in early 2018 in some major advanced economies, the negative effects of the trade measures, as well as a weaker outlook for some key emerging market and developing economies. U.S. GDP will be expected to expand at 2.9% and 2.0% in 2018 and 2019 respectively. The Euro Area is likely to grow at 2.0% and 1.9% in 2018 and 2019 respectively. For Mainland China, the negative effects of the trade friction with the U.S. and other structural adjustments have surfaced. The economic grew at 6.5% in the third quarter of 2018. This caused Hong Kong, another major market of Macao’s service exports, to have a slower economic growth. It grew by 2.9% in the third quarter of 2018. Economic uncertainty continues to affect Macao’s economic growth in 2019. Macao's exports of services are expected to increase by 9.2% in 2018 and are expected to grow slower with 4.2% in 2019. Exports of goods are expected to increase by 3.6% and 0.6% in 2018 and 2019 respectively. Concomitant with the steady growth in local consumption, imports of goods are expected to rise by 2.8% and 3.1% in 2018 and 2019 respectively. Amid the slower rise in exports of services, the imports of services will expand modestly. The growth rates of imports of services are expected to increase by 9.0% and 4.2% in 2018 and 2019 respectively. For the domestic demand, private consumption spending continued to grow steadily. It is expected to grow at 4.5% and 4.0% in 2018 and 2019 respectively. Total investment is expected to decline at 14.9% and 7.9% in 2018 and 2019 respectively. Inflation, as measured by the change in the Composite Consumer Price Index, is expected to be steady. Inflation rate is expected to be 3.1% in 2018 and 3.0% in 2019 respectively. For the aggregate economy, the GDP price deflator is forecast to increase 3.6% and 4.1% in 2018 and 2019 respectively. The labour market continues to be tight. Unemployment rate is forecast to be 1.9% and 2.0% in 2018 and 2019 respectively. Excluded the non-resident workers, the unemployment rate of residents is expected to be 2.5% and 2.8% in 2018 and 2019 respectively. Median monthly employment earnings are forecast to be 16,032 MOP and 16,205 MOP in 2018 and 2019 respectively. For the whole economy, Macao’s GDP is expected to grow by 4.4%, with ranged from a pessimistic of rate 2.9% to an optimistic of rate 5.8% in 2018; and by 2.7%, with ranged from a pessimistic of rate -6.5% to an optimistic of rate 11.9% in 2019. The exports of services are highly influenced by external economic conditions and government policies. They may adjust greatly throughout the year. We will update the forecast to reflect the possible adjustment regularly (Table and Figures 23 to 27). |
| Keyword | Macroeconomics Forecast Macau economy |
| Language | 英語English |
| The Source to Article | PB_Publication |
| PUB ID | 42760 |
| Document Type | Report |
| Collection | DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS |
| Corresponding Author | Chan, C. S. |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Chan, C. S.,Kwan, F.,Ho, W. H.,et al. Macroeconomic Forecast for Macao Janauary 2019, 2019. |
| Files in This Item: | There are no files associated with this item. | |||||
Items in the repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.
Edit Comment