Residential College | false |
Status | 已發表Published |
Demand Forecasts with Judgement Bias in a Newsvendor Problem | |
Yini Zheng1; Qi Fu2; Juan Li1; Lianmin Zhang3 | |
2023-08-18 | |
Source Publication | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PRODUCTION RESEARCH |
ABS Journal Level | 3 |
ISSN | 0020-7543 |
Volume | 61Issue:16Pages:5468–5482 |
Abstract | We explore the impact of judgement bias on demand forecast accuracy and profit to identify thedriving force of decision-makers to be biased. We study the accuracy-maximising forecasts and theprofit-maximising forecasts, which results in the least error of demand forecasts and minimum devi-ation from the optimal order decision, respectively. Under the assumption that period-to-perioddemand is independent over time, we find that both types of forecasts are biased. It implies thata newsvendor has the motivation to be biased to obtain either a more accurate demand forecastor a higher profit. Moreover, the decision error under the accuracy-maximising forecasts can belower than that under unbiased demand forecasts and be bounded by twice of the error underprofit-maximising forecasts. It suggests that the biased accuracy-maximising forecasts can per-form satisfactorily in both forecasts and decisions. We further relax the assumption of independentdemand by considering correlated and trended demand processes, and show the robustness of thepositiveimpactofjudgementbias.Wethenproposeamethodtosolvepuredata-drivennewsvendorproblem and examine its performance with empirical evidence. Our paper contributes to the litera-ture on behavioural operations management by investigating the rationality of judgement bias andits implications. |
Keyword | Judgement Bias Demand Forecasts Newsvendor Problem Forecast Accuracy Decision Error |
DOI | 10.1080/00207543.2022.2102450 |
URL | View the original |
Indexed By | SCIE |
Language | 英語English |
WOS Research Area | Engineering ; Operations Research & Management Science |
WOS Subject | Engineering, Industrial ; Engineering, Manufacturing ; Operations Research & Management Science |
WOS ID | WOS:000843540100001 |
Publisher | Taylor and Francis Ltd. |
Scopus ID | 2-s2.0-85136124286 |
Fulltext Access | |
Citation statistics | |
Document Type | Journal article |
Collection | Faculty of Business Administration DEPARTMENT OF ACCOUNTING AND INFORMATION MANAGEMENT |
Corresponding Author | Juan Li |
Affiliation | 1.School of Management and Engineering, Nanjing University, Nanjing, People’s Republic of China 2.Faculty of Business Administration, University of Macau, Taipa, People’s Republic of China 3.Shenzhen Research Institute of Big Data, Shenzhen, People’s Republic of China |
Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Yini Zheng,Qi Fu,Juan Li,et al. Demand Forecasts with Judgement Bias in a Newsvendor Problem[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PRODUCTION RESEARCH, 2023, 61(16), 5468–5482. |
APA | Yini Zheng., Qi Fu., Juan Li., & Lianmin Zhang (2023). Demand Forecasts with Judgement Bias in a Newsvendor Problem. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PRODUCTION RESEARCH, 61(16), 5468–5482. |
MLA | Yini Zheng,et al."Demand Forecasts with Judgement Bias in a Newsvendor Problem".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PRODUCTION RESEARCH 61.16(2023):5468–5482. |
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