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Demand Forecasts with Judgement Bias in a Newsvendor Problem
Yini Zheng1; Qi Fu2; Juan Li1; Lianmin Zhang3
2023-08-18
Source PublicationINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PRODUCTION RESEARCH
ABS Journal Level3
ISSN0020-7543
Volume61Issue:16Pages:5468–5482
Abstract

We explore the impact of judgement bias on demand forecast accuracy and profit to identify thedriving force of decision-makers to be biased. We study the accuracy-maximising forecasts and theprofit-maximising forecasts, which results in the least error of demand forecasts and minimum devi-ation from the optimal order decision, respectively. Under the assumption that period-to-perioddemand is independent over time, we find that both types of forecasts are biased. It implies thata newsvendor has the motivation to be biased to obtain either a more accurate demand forecastor a higher profit. Moreover, the decision error under the accuracy-maximising forecasts can belower than that under unbiased demand forecasts and be bounded by twice of the error underprofit-maximising forecasts. It suggests that the biased accuracy-maximising forecasts can per-form satisfactorily in both forecasts and decisions. We further relax the assumption of independentdemand by considering correlated and trended demand processes, and show the robustness of thepositiveimpactofjudgementbias.Wethenproposeamethodtosolvepuredata-drivennewsvendorproblem and examine its performance with empirical evidence. Our paper contributes to the litera-ture on behavioural operations management by investigating the rationality of judgement bias andits implications.

KeywordJudgement Bias Demand Forecasts Newsvendor Problem Forecast Accuracy Decision Error
DOI10.1080/00207543.2022.2102450
URLView the original
Indexed BySCIE
Language英語English
WOS Research AreaEngineering ; Operations Research & Management Science
WOS SubjectEngineering, Industrial ; Engineering, Manufacturing ; Operations Research & Management Science
WOS IDWOS:000843540100001
PublisherTaylor and Francis Ltd.
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85136124286
Fulltext Access
Citation statistics
Document TypeJournal article
CollectionFaculty of Business Administration
DEPARTMENT OF ACCOUNTING AND INFORMATION MANAGEMENT
Corresponding AuthorJuan Li
Affiliation1.School of Management and Engineering, Nanjing University, Nanjing, People’s Republic of China
2.Faculty of Business Administration, University of Macau, Taipa, People’s Republic of China
3.Shenzhen Research Institute of Big Data, Shenzhen, People’s Republic of China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Yini Zheng,Qi Fu,Juan Li,et al. Demand Forecasts with Judgement Bias in a Newsvendor Problem[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PRODUCTION RESEARCH, 2023, 61(16), 5468–5482.
APA Yini Zheng., Qi Fu., Juan Li., & Lianmin Zhang (2023). Demand Forecasts with Judgement Bias in a Newsvendor Problem. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PRODUCTION RESEARCH, 61(16), 5468–5482.
MLA Yini Zheng,et al."Demand Forecasts with Judgement Bias in a Newsvendor Problem".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PRODUCTION RESEARCH 61.16(2023):5468–5482.
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